Today's best NBA prop bet pick & predictions, Saturday 11/4: Jayson Tatum dishes the ball
The NBA in-season tournament began last night with the first 7 group-play games, but we don’t need to worry about that today. Let’s dive into our top NBA player props bets for the regular-season games on Saturday, November 4. You can also read our NBA predictions for each of tonight’s matchups but now let’s look at my favorite NBA player props.
Talen Horton-Tucker (Jazz) Over 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-111)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Talen Horton-Tucker breakout game is coming. We saw glimpses of it last game as he finished with a season-high in minutes due to the Jazz finally being competitive in a game. Horton-Tucker finished with 26 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) in 31 minutes. He will remain the third option behind Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, but his 14 field-goal attempts were third on the team in the last game. It’s even more encouraging that he shot 50% from the field. Tonight, Horton-Tucker and the Jazz get the tough assignment against the Minnesota Timberwolves and I’ll have my fingers crossed that the Jazz can make this a game.
The Timberwolves come into tonight as 7.5-point favorites on FanDuel, understandably so as they are playing at a top defensive level. They’ve held 3 of their 4 opponents under 100 points, including the reigning NBA champions, the Denver Nuggets. But with all the attention on Clarkson and Markkanen, Horton-Tucker will be a sneaky candidate to have a big game. He’s come up clutch for the Jazz down the stretch already this season by recording 13 and 8 PRA in the 4th quarter when he has gone over this line. If Horton-Tucker can get to the 25-minute mark, I have faith that he can smash this line. Last season, when playing at least 25 minutes, Horton-Tucker surpassed this player prop line in 20 of 23 games.
Jayson Tatum (Celtics) Over 4.5 assists (-127)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The loss of Derrick White for the Celtics tonight is more crucial than you think. White’s scoring ability has been on full display this season, but his defense makes him one of the best three-and-D players in the league and the backcourt defense of Jrue Holiday and White is a scary sight for offenses. Not to mention that White averages close to 6 assist opportunities per game. Somebody has to fill that, so plug in Jayson Tatum.
Tatum is known for his elite scoring ability, but he’s also capable of racking up assists. Even though he’s had only one game this season with 5 assists, he has averaged more opportunities than point guard Jrue Holiday. That’s primarily due to his top-20 usage rate in the league. He has the ball in his hands far more than everyone on the team except Jaylen Brown, who has a 27% usage rate.
Tatum will be matched up against the Brooklyn Nets, who have the perimeter defenders to combat Tatum and make it difficult for him to score. The Celtics could go to 2 big-man lineup with Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis, but with four shooters on the court, I expect Tatum to be dishing the ball out.
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