Today’s Best NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 3/29: Bigs Stretch the Floor

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Ahaan Rungta


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NBA & MLB writer for Pickswise, also specializing in NFL betting and fantasy football. Rungta also works in analytics & betting for PlayerProfiler. For Ahaan Rungta media enquiries, please email
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We are just a couple of weeks away from the finishing touches to the NBA regular season. The author is now 43-32 for a +9.4% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are his two favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, March 25.

Mo Bamba (PHI) Over 0.5 threes made (-105)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a painful last-second loss where officiating got in the way of their race for a playoff spot. Although rumors of Joel Embiid’s return swirl on social media, the man holding down the fort of starting center is still Mo Bamba, who has not been gun-shy firing from beyond the arc in this role. This season, as a starter alongside Tyrese Maxey, Bamba has averaged 0.80 made threes on 1.88 attempts per 20 minutes.

Now, he gets a Cleveland Cavaliers defense that have been a downright average defense against catch-and-shoot threes and above the break threes over their last 15 games. With Evan Mobley also recently returning to the lineup, there is even more paint protection in Cleveland’s defense, which means Bamba should be inclined to be a floor-stretcher here. In this matchup, we project 2.25 attempts and 0.90 makes from three, making this prop playable down to -125.

Chet Holmgren (OKC) 2+ threes made (-115)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Phoenix Suns, who they have beaten in huge margins twice this season. However, on Friday, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely out again and that is why the Vegas spread for this one is just 2.5 points. Expect minutes in bulk for the rookie Chet Holmgren as long as he doesn’t repeat his barrage of early fouls from last game.

The key to Holmgren contributing in this game will be to stretch the floor against the immoble Jusuf Nurkić. Over their last 15 games, the Phoenix Suns are a bottom-ten defense against above the break three-pointers and by catch-and-shoot three-point shot frequency. That is exactly the role Holmgren will have to adapt in this contest and although there isn’t much of a sample this season with Gilgeous-Alexander not playing, we project Holmgren for 4.5 attempts and 1.75 makes from deep; this prop is playable down to -125.

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