Ahaan Rungta
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After a day off on the hardwood on Sunday, we are back with a loaded 13-game slate in the association and there’s plenty of value on the betting board; it’s our job to find it. These are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, December 11.
Gordon Hayward (CHA) under 16.5 points (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The veteran forward Gordon Hayward has cleared this line in four straight games and it is scary to fade a hot scorer but we will do so since this projection is just too high. During this four-game span, Hayward has shot an uber-efficient 60.3% from the field and 50.0% from three, which is already bound to regress at some point, but he also doesn’t get an easy spot today.
With the Miami Heat missing their top-two defenders in Bam Adebayo and Haywood Highsmith, the Hornets will have an easier go scoring on drives and through their top options, headlined by Terry Rozier. In the absence of Adebayo, the Heat defense is susceptible to the three-ball and the paint but ranks as the third-best in the NBA in the midrange area and the best in the restricted area. Since Charlotte’s lineup shift following the return of Miles Bridges, 49.6% of Hayward’s field goal attempts come from those two zones, and over the larger same size of games since last season, Hayward already averages only 15.7 points per game without LaMelo Ball.
Jarrett Allen (CLE) to record a double-double (-120)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The plus-money value of this prop on the former NBA All-Star gives this great value, especially since it is sitting at around -110 on other sportsbooks. The Cleveland Cavaliers will be without ball-dominant scorer Caris LeVert and starting big Evan Mobley today, which should already create more touches for their starting center Jarrett Allen. However, he also draws a good matchup here.
Over their last 15 games, the Orlando Magic have allowed the eleventh-most rebounds per game to centers and since they have been without Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter Jr., their one defensive weakness has been the restricted area, where they have allowed the eleventh-most field goals made per game. That is the one spot on the court where Allen gets volume offensively.
In these teams’ previous meeting, Allen recorded 8 points and 11 rebounds in just 19 minutes of work due to foul trouble. Since last season, he has averaged 11.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per 33 minutes in games without Mobley. Today’s Cavaliers vs. Magic matchup features the closest spread of the NBA slate (1.5 points), so the books are expecting a competitive game and if we get that, Allen is a great bet to record double-figures in both the points and rebounds columns.
Be sure to check out our full Cavaliers vs Magic predictions
