Ahaan Rungta
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After a classic of a Super Bowl, we have immediate action in the NBA and money to make through prop betting. The author is now 34-22 for a +16.0% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are two of his favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday, February 12.
Gary Trent Jr. (TOR) Over 11.5 points (-125)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
In this season’s prop article series, we have thrived off a simple strategy: buy low on role players in good matchups after tough games that are easy to explain. Gary Trent Jr. is coming off back to back stinkers against tough defenses but gets an easy draw against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Since the Spurs re-aligned their lineup on January 4, they are a bottom-six defense at the rim, in the restricted area, and against above-the-break threes. On the season, they are now the seventh-worst defensive efficiency team against spot-up shooting.
Trent is a spot-up shooter and since he re-entered the starting lineup with the new-look Raptors, he has averaged 11.9 points per 28 minutes in games with Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett all playing. In that span, he leads the team in field goal attempts per game from above the break and in the midrange. Our projection for him tonight is 14.5 points, making this prop worth the juice.
Tre Mann (CHA) Over 10.5 points (-110)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
It is not often that we can find betting value on a player’s second career game for a team but that is the case here. The Charlotte Hornets still list LaMelo Ball on the injury report, shipped off Terry Rozier prior to the Trade Deadline, and shipped off Gordon Hayward on Deadline Day. That leaves the newly acquired scoring talent Tre Mann as the starting point guard for the team. In his Hornets debut, Mann shot an abysmal 36.4% from the field, including 1-for-5 from three, dished 9 assists, and still barely missed this line, scoring nine points. Even in just 27 minutes of play, the usage was high. It is time to buy low while we still can against a horrid Indiana Pacers defense.
Indiana has ranked as a bottom-ten defense all season long inside the arc by efficiency and their high pace only helps other teams score more often on a volume basis. Mann was already averaging 10.3 points per 25 minutes for a Thunder team with plenty of young mouths to feed. Now he’s the man and even if the game stays remotely competitive, he should contest 30 minutes once again with heavy responsibility as Indiana’s best on-ball defenders are preoccupied with Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges. We project Mann for 13.5 points tonight, giving us immense value on this prop at pick ‘em.
