Today's Best NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Saturday 3/2: The return of Bradley Beal

Phoenix Suns guard Bradley Beal (3) takes a three-point shot against the Golden State Warriors during the first half at Chase Center.
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Saturday NBA presents bettors with a 5-game slate tipping off at 3:00 pm ET. I have 2 NBA player prop bets. with 1 coming at the end of the night between the Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns.

Make sure you also read our NBA predictions for today’s matchups.

Keyonte George, PG, UTA, Under 2.5 made 3s (-145)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

On player props, -145 is about as high as I would go in terms of vig . FanDuel and BetMGM have this same prop priced at -164 and -185. Getting George to make fewer than 3 shots from distance at this price is a no-brainer for me, especially with his opponent in the Miami Heat as 8-point favorites at home — where George shoots the ball much worse. He is shooting the 3-ball at a 31% clip on the road compared to 38% at home.

The rookie has gotten more run lately but has attempted fewer than 7 triples in six of his last 10 games. During that stretch he is shooting 40% from deep, a number I expect to come down against a Heat team that ranked in the top 10 in defending the 3-point line in February.

Check out our Nuggets vs Lakers Same Game Parlay

Bradley Beal, SG, PHX, Under 4.5 assists (-122)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Bradley Beal is expected to return to the court tonight for the first time since February 13. He has already missed stretches of 5 and 12 games this season with various injuries. We have yet to get news of any minutes restriction, but I’m projecting him at just below 30 minutes — which doesn’t include the high possibility of a blowout. The Suns are 9.5-point favorites over the Rockets, who have dropped 11 of their last 15 games.

While Beal has surpassed this line in 13 of 22 games with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker active, he topped 35 minutes in 14 of those games. I can’t guarantee that Beal won’t see those same minutes, but I would be shocked if he came close to that in his first action in more than 2 weeks. A cautious approach should be on display.

Before the injury Beal averaged 5 assists on 8 opportunities in 6 games in February. I expect Beals usage slightly decreases with fewer minutes and a projected blowout at hand. We are also getting a slight +EV spot for Beal’s under on assists.

FanDuel currently has this priced at -122 for the under of 4.5, while DraftKings and BetMGM have this down to -130.

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