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The NBA will again take a backseat to the NFL on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean we ignore it.
Let’s dive into our best NBA player prop bets for games on Sunday, January 7. Also make sure you also read our NBA predictions for today’s games.
Spencer Dinwiddie, PG, BKN, Under 6.5 assists (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This one is already starting to move on sharp books. FanDuel currently has this line at 6.5, with vig on the under at -130. Let’s dive into why I’m looking to fade Spencer Dinwiddie from a playmaking standpoint against the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday.
Dinwiddie and the Nets have been a huge letdown this season. Many presumed Mikal Bridges and the rest of the core would take a step forward, but that has been far from the case. The Nets are 16-20 and looking like a below average play-in team that will most likely get swept if they can make it out of the play-in tournament. Now to Dinwiddie. He is shooting below 40% and — more importantly — has seen his assist numbers take a hit. In the last 10 games he has stayed under 7 assists 8 times and is averaging a shade over 10 assist opportunities per game — a tough number to surpass with the Nets shooting at a bottom 10 rate from the field.
The Trail Blazers are a nice draw for Dinwiddie, but with his usage rate continuing to dwindle from a month ago and fewer opportunities presenting itself, this is a fine spot to fade the veteran point guard.
Malik Monk, SG, SAC, to score 15+ points (-125)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
You won’t find this line on all major books until later in the morning, but FanDuel has been kind enough to release it early. Malik Monk has broken out the last few games and is crawling back into the 6th Man of the Year Award race. He is trailing Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bogdan Bogdanovic of the Atlanta Hawks in terms of betting odds. Let’s focus on Sunday, when Monk and the Kings will take on the New Orleans Pelicans.
On a loaded slate, this game is most exciting to me. The 235.5 total indicates a ton of points will be scored, while the game expects to be in reach with the Kings being +3.5 home underdogs — right where Monk shines. Monk is averaging 17 points a game behind the Kings faithful and has surpassed this line in 11 of 18 games. But it’s the minutes that I expect Monk to play that make this player prop bet worthwhile. In games in which he has logged at least 25 minutes, he is over this line in 14 of 19 — including the last 2.
The Pelicans are an elite defensive group that can throw multiple perimeter defenders at Monk, but I’m banking on minutes and volume. This will be the 4th time Monk will face off against the Pelicans, with the former Kentucky standout looking to replicate his 21-point performance from the last time out.
