Today's Best NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 3/31: Fading Aaron Gordon and Marvin Bagley

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We’ve got an unusual 10-game NBA slate on Sunday ahead of us – we won’t complain! Let’s dive into my top NBA player prop bets, while you can also check out our NBA picks for today’s action.

Marvin Bagley, WSH, Under 13.5 points (-115)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I’ve made it a trend to fade 4th-5th options on an offense facing against elite defenses. Marvin Bagley fits that trend. The Washinton Wizards will face off against the Miami Heat on Sunday as 11-point underdogs. Bagley, whose points total is listed as 13.5, is the fewest of the Wizards starting 5.

Kudos to Bagley for putting together back-to-back games of 18 and 15 points, with the Wizards starting five together. But he’s shooting 14 for 19 during that span – a trend I don’t see continuing against Bam Adebayo and the Heat.

Check out our Easter Sunday NBA Parlay

Aaron Gordon, DEN, Under 3.5 assists (-104)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Let’s get sweaty. Aaron Gordon meets the snail-paced Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday to start the NBA slate with a total of 215.5 points. Gordon went over his assists line of 3.5 last game without Jamal Murray in the 4th quarter. The hope is that the Nuggets starting five is healthy enough to play, as they are still fighting for the top spot in the Western Conference. When Murray and Nikola Jokic are active, Gordon has stayed under this line in 34 in 60 games.

Check out our Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets prediction

Jalen Williams, OKC, Under 21.5 points (-113)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I’m going for the +EV play in the Thunder-Knicks game. FanDuel and BetMGM have Jalen Williams’s points total at 21.5 juiced to -120 and -122. Williams will be the #1 option for the Thunder if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can’t go. But that’s why we’re fading the up-and-coming star. Williams scored just 16 points in the last game without Alexander. While he did go over his points line against the Rockets a game before, it took overtime to go over.

The New York Knicks can throw a ton at Williams on the perimeter and in the paint with Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson if the two are healthy enough to go.

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