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An 8-game NBA slate will have me glued to the television all night long. Let’s dive into our best NBA player prop bets for games on Thursday, December 28. Also make sure you also read our NBA predictions for today’s games.
Jeremy Sochan, PF, SAS, Under 4.5 assists (-125)
Line available at ESPNBet Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The “Jeremy Sochan at point guard” experience has concluded. After starting the season as the point guard for the Spurs and averaging more than 4 assists in his first 15 games, Sohan’s facilitating numbers have taken a hit. In his last 10 games, he’s averaged just over 3 assists per game and has stayed under this line in 8 games.
The Spurs will likely have Keldon Johnson continue to come off the bench, but more importantly, Victor Wembanyama will be active tonight. He’s in line to sit tomorrow for the Spurs second leg of a back-to-back when the Trail Blazers and Spurs will face off against each other again. As stated above, Sochan’s assist numbers have taken a hit, but so has his usage. From starting the season logging 20+% usage rate games to now below 16%, has Sochan taking a backseat in this offense. Head to DraftKings or ESPNBet to find this prop at -130, while FanDuel is down to -138.
Check out our +595 MEGA Parlay
Stephen Curry, PG, GSW, Under 9.5 assists/rebounds (-122)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
These rebounds + assists props are some of my favorite. Books have soft lines on them, and you can find solid volume. For example, Stephen Curry, under 9.5 rebs/asts, is listed at -122, while the rest of the market is climbing to -135. That matters in the long run when sports betting. Let’s get to why we’re fading Curry against the Miami Heat.
The Heat will look to slow down fast-paced teams. It’s in their nature. In their last 10 games, they rank in the bottom 5 in pace of play. That’s our first calling. To follow, Curry hasn’t facilitated as much as we’ve seen – especially without Draymond Green. Curry has played 14 games each with and without Green; in the games with Green, Curry averages 4.8 assists. Without Green, that number comes down to 4.1. That has much to do with how Green is used in this offense. He slips off ball screens and is an excellent outlet for Curry.
From a rebounding and assists standpoint, Chris Paul and Brandin Podziemski are outdueling Curry and have registered more assist opportunities per game in the last 10. If you have been following my picks on X, we were on this same prop over a week ago, where we cashed with a sweat. Let’s do it all over again.
Check out our Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors prediction.
