Today's Best NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 3/21: Domantas Sabonis dazzles in D.C.

Sacramento Kings forward Domantas Sabonis (10) celebrates after scoring a basket against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter at Paycom Center.
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Get all your TV’s out. We have March Madness and a 7-game NBA slate on Thursday. I have 3 player prop bets on this action filled night on the hardwood.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, SF, ATL, Over 16.5 points (-133)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Don’t make the mistake and bet on Bogdanovic from the New York Knicks — that’s Bojan Bogdanovic. Let’s dive into why I’m backing Bogdan with a depleted Atlanta Hawks roster. 

Bogdanovic has the luxury of being the second option behind Dejounte Murray, who will sometimes prefer to facilitate. Bogdanovic has been averaging over 13 field-goal attempts in his last 10 games without Trae Young, but Saddiq Bey and Jalen Johnson are also out. Their absences open up Bogdanovic to hoist from behind the arc. He is attempting over 8 3 pointers in his last 10 games and shooting it at a 35% clip.

The Hawks will battle the Phoenix Suns, who are playing on their second leg of a back-to-back after making easy work of the Philadelphia 76ers. They come into action carrying a bottom half of the league defensive efficiency rating while allowing opponents to shoot 37% from deep during that span — 8th worst in the association. Both metrics point to Bogdan having a stellar night.

I found the over of 16.5 points at Caesars Sportsbook at -133, while FanDuel has already moved this prop to 17.5 points. BetMGM is moving at the moment from -125 to -145.

Check out our +1612 NBA mega parlay!

Domantas Sabonis, C, SAC, Over 21.5 points (-109)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This line is one I fully expect to move to 22.5 by tipoff. FanDuel, one of the sharpest books regarding player props, has already done it. Caesars and BetMGM are allowing bettors to get a point better at nearly the same price.

Sabonis and the Kings made easy work of the Toronto Raptors last night. Sabonis recorded another triple-double in just 27 minutes. He should be relatively fresh for tonight and feast against a lost Washington Wizards defense. Their 122 defensive rating is 2nd worst in the NBA over their last 10 games, while opposing big men have soared over their scoring props as of late. Richaun Holmes will most likely get the start at center for the Wizards, but he is dealing with an illness. Nonetheless, Holmes is 6’9” and is no match for Sabonis underneath. Let’s hope this game stays competitive to get Sabonis to 30+ minutes.

Wendell Carter Jr., C, ORL, Under 11.5 points (-113)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I will sneak in an under on tonight’s slate. It revolves around a 4th-5th scoring option in what is anticipated to be a slow-paced game between the Orlando Magic and New Orleans Pelicans. I’m fading Wendell Carter Jr.

Carter, in this offense, is a mystery. His minutes are never guaranteed, as he has averaging 26 per game over his last 10 contests. Meanwhile, he has attempted 8 or fewer field goal attempts in 7 of those contests.

The Pelicans are stifling on the defensive end. They defend the 3-pointer well, boast the 2nd-best defensive rating this month and allow the 3rd-fewest points in the game during that span.

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