Today's best NBA prop bets pick & predictions, Sunday 11/12: The Aaron Gordon show
Now that Saturday’s 4-game slate is out of the way, Sunday is where the real fun is. The NBA gifted us with an 11-game slate right in the middle of NFL Sunday. Sounds good to me.
While you are sweating your NFL bets, I’ll make sure to make my favorite NBA plays as sweat-free as possible. Let’s dive into our top NBA player prop bets for the games on Sunday, November 12. You can also read our NBA predictions for each of tonight’s matchups.
De’Anthony Melton, PHI, Under 3.5 assists (-132)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
This NBA player prop bet is…ugly. But I see a number I love and value at FanDuel Sportsbook, while DraftKings has De’Anthony Melton under 3.5 assists at -140 at the time of publishing. It is a pace up spot for Melton. Still, he is a fourth option on an offense featuring reigning MVP Joel Embiid, Most Improved Player favorite Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, averaging a 19% usage rate — higher than Melton’s 16.5% usage rate. Unfortunately, Kelly Oubre will be sidelined for an extended time as he was struck by a vehicle Saturday night. It’s yet to be determined who will be inserted in the lineup. Newcomer Nicolas Batum is more than a viable option for the 76ers.
The poor shooting Melton has stayed under this line in back-to-back games after recording more than four assists in the team’s first six games. He’s averaging just 3.5 assist opportunities per game in the two games, as Maxey has recorded 11 and 6 assists in those two. Embiid has also come into his own from a passing standpoint, averaging 5.5 assists. Hopefully the 76ers look to get Melton some open shots, as he is shooting 28.6% to start the year. I don’t see him coming into a facilitator role, even in a pace up spot against the Indiana Pacers, who are allowing the 14th-fewest assists per game. As 6-point favorites and with how the 76ers have been playing, we could see the floodgates open and Melton to take a seat early in this one.
Aaron Gordon, DEN, Over 27.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I got ahead of this line in Gordon’s last game without Jamal Murray, in which Gordon shined for 28 points + rebounds + assists. I’m going right back to it, too. The usage and volume cannot be ignored for Gordon, as someone has to try and fill Murray’s void. Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. have been those guys. It will be interesting to see who Dillon Brooks matches up against in this one, but I like Gordon either way to shine on both ends.
In the two games without Murray this season, Gordon has surpassed this line in both games. The volume of the last game is what caught my eye. He was 4th on the team in field goal attempts at 14. Even though he converted on just five of those shots, Gordon put together a 14/11/3 game to squeak by this line. If Gordon is getting 14 shots up, I feel great about cashing this again. The success without Murray even dates back to last season. In the eight games without Murray, Gordon soared over this line in 7 straight to close out the regular season.
The Rockets are an exciting team filled with young stars and veterans and have opened up as just 4-point underdogs at home against the reigning NBA champions. Look for Gordon to clock in his usual 32 minutes and cash this player prop bet for a fifth straight game.