Ricky Dimon
The MLB week comes to a close with Sunday Night Baseball between the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers in the Motor City. It’s the rubber match of a 3-game series, with the Twins having taken the opener before the Tigers hit back on Saturday. I’m on a heater at the midway point of the season, going 4-for-8 on Same Game Parlays at +481, +632 and +439 odds, 6-2 on YRFI/NRFI picks and 42-32-2 on best bets. Let’s keep the momentum going!
With tonight’s showdown set for 7:10 pm ET on ESPN, it’s time to break down my SGP. Also don’t forget to check out all of our MLB picks for Sunday’s slate.
Tigers -1.5 (-127)
Under 7.5 (-120)
Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105)
Parlay odds: +575
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Detroit first baseman Spencer Torkelson being productive would obviously work well with a Tigers win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also hammering the under. But even if Torkelson delivers, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Tigers -1.5 (-127)
Tarik Skubal is taking the mound tonight, and that means the Tigers are in business. They are 10-1 in his last 11 starts and have picked up 7 of those 10 wins by multiple runs, including 4 in a row. There is no reason to think that such a trend will suddenly come to an end against Chris Paddack and the Twins. Whereas Detroit is the best team in baseball with a 52-32 record (tied with the Dodgers), Minnesota is 40-43 overall (18-26 on the road). Chris Paddack’s 4.64 ERA balloons to 5.48 away from home. The Tigers have momentum after rolling 10-5 on Saturday; look for it to be full steam ahead for ESPN’s Game of the Week.
Under 7.5 (-120)
Whenever Skubal toes the rubber, the under is always an intriguing play. After all, the southpaw is 9-2 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 125 strikeouts compared to just 13 walks in 102.0 innings. A second consecutive American League Cy Young Award could be incoming. The Twins would almost certainly have to do all of the heavy lifting by themselves in order for this contest to exceed the 7.5 total, but I don’t think they can do it. Paddack is nothing special, but he did fare well against the Tigers when he faced them earlier this season (1 earned run allowed in 5.0 innings on April 12).
Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105)
Torkelson is on a 3-game hitting streak and has produced multi-hit performances in 2 of the last 3 outings. He has covered this 1.5 H+R+RBI line in 3 of the last 5. This stretch includes his 17th home run of the 2025 campaign, which 25-year-old delivered against the Athletics on Thursday. Although the sample size is very small in his head-to-head matchup with Paddack, Torkelson is an encouraging 2-for-3 so far. Count on the 2020 #1 overall pick to play his part in a convincing win for the home team.
