Ricky Dimon
The U.S. Open gets underway on Monday in New York, so it’s time to start our segment of tennis picks that will continue throughout the upcoming fortnight. It begins with Pickswise’s Men’s Singles Futures Odds and Expert Best Bets. Yes, once again all free!
On the men’s side, a three-man battle is expected to develop at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. That was certainly the case earlier this summer, when Roger Federer beat Rafael Nadal in a high-quality semifinal at Wimbledon and then lost to Novak Djokovic in an epic title match. Can anyone dethrone the “Big 3,” or will the favorites once again reign supreme?
Dark Horse: Stan Wawrinka (+4000 to win the title)
There’s Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer, and then there’s everyone else. At least that’s the story according to the odds. Djokovic is +120 to lift the trophy, Nadal is the second choice at +300, and Federer comes in thereafter with a +700 payout. A red-hot Daniil Medvedev is not too far behind as a +1200 fourth favorite. Medvedev has reached three consecutive finals: in Washington, D.C. (runner-up), Montreal (runner-up), and Cincinnati (champion).
At +1200, it is hard to jump on Medvedev. A better option is Stan Wawrinka at +4000. Wawrinka is a former champion of this tournament (2016) and he boasts an amazing 40-12 lifetime record at the U.S. Open. The 24th-ranked Swiss has cooled off a little bit since reaching the French Open quarterfinals, but there is something about New York that brings out the best in his game.
Best value pick: Nick Kyrgios to reach the semifinals (+1600)
The section of the draw that everyone wants to be in is the quarter that is without any of the Big 3. That’s where No. 4 seed Dominic Thiem resides. Thiem made a run to the U.S. Open quarters last season, but he has always been better on clay than on hard courts and he is also dealing with a viral illness at the moment.
To say the door is open here would be a gross understatement. Kyrgios is never a safe pick under any circumstances because of his mental instability, but his talent level is such that he could easily make a semifinal run. Quite simply, he is the most talented player in this part of the bracket. Wimbledon semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut is also a strong pick at +600, but these odds on the 24-year-old Australian are incredibly enticing.
Worst bet: Alexander Zverev to reach the semifinals (+600)
At the other end of the spectrum is Zverev, who is the second favorite to emerge from Nadal’s quarter of the draw and advance to the semis. The 22-year-old German is the second-highest ranked player here as the No. 6 seed, but that is just about where the good news ends. Zverev’s overall match record since the start of the grass-court swing in June is 7-6 and he has never reached the last four at any slam. He has made it to just two quarterfinals—both on clay at Roland Garros.
Nadal will almost certainly take care of business in his soft section. If he doesn’t, more likely candidates to advance are Karen Khachanov and John Isner. Not Zverev.
Champion pick: Novak Djokovic (+120)
It is true that the payout on Djokovic is not great, but he is a big favorite for a reason and anything better than even money represents decent value. The top-ranked Serb has won four of the last five Grand Slams and each of the last four on hard courts. His draw is not a simple one at Flushing Meadows, but if there is anyone who can handle a difficult road it is Djokovic.
