Matthew Lowrimore
UFC Fight Night 261 takes place on Saturday at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card features a UFC Lightweight fight between Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot as the Main Event. Here are our best bets for this UFC card, which will include three fights on the Main Card. Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC Fight Night 261 Main Card fights.
UFC Fight Night 261 Main Card Best Bets
UFC best bet: Mateusz Gamrot ML over Charles Oliveira
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable at -108 or better.
The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 261 will see Charles Oliveira take on Mateusz Gamrot. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Gamrot comes into this fight with an MMA record of 25-3 and 8-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Gamrot is absorbing 3.04 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling is also elite, averaging 5.33 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 36%, and his takedown defense is 90%.
This fight is evenly matched, with Oliveira the slight favorite. That being said, Gamrot looks to be the best betting option. Gamrot has won 4 of his last 5 UFC fights, compared to Oliveira, who has lost 3 of his last 5 UFC fights. Further, Gamrot has a clear edge in grappling, plus he has an elite takedown defense that could nullify Oliveira’s ability to force a submission. Given this, backing Gamrot to win will be our best bet.
Read our full Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot prediction
UFC prediction: Vincente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez – Fight to End by KO/TKO (+100)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +100.
The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 261 will see Vicente Luque take on Joel Alvarez. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division.
Because Alvarez is one of the biggest favorites on this card, we will be looking at the method of victory. Alvarez has seen 5 of his 9 UFC fights end by KO/TKO, which includes 3 of his last 4 UFC fights. As for Luque, he has seen 2 of his last 5 UFC fights also end by KO/TKO. Given that Alvarez and Luque have seen a fair amount of their fights end by KO/TKO recently, backing the same here will be our best bet.
Read our full Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez prediction
UFC pick: Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto – Fight to go the Distance – No (-165)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165
The third fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 261 will see Jhonata Diniz take on Mario Pinto. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division.
Diniz is the small favorite; however, we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance instead. Pinto has seen both of his UFC fights end inside the distance, while Diniz has seen 3 of his 5 UFC fights end inside the distance, including his most recent fight. Because both fighters have had a high finish rate recently, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be our best bet.
Read our full Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto prediction
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