Matthew Lowrimore
Pickswise ExpertMatthew's Picks
The first fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 73 will see King Green take on Lance Gibson Jr. This will be a fight in the UFC Catch Weight division. Green enters this fight with an MMA record of 32-17-1 and 17-14-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. Green is absorbing 3.72 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. His grappling has been decent throughout his career, averaging 1.22 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 39% and a takedown defense of 74%.
Gibson Jr. enters this fight with an MMA record of 9-1, and this will be his UFC debut. He has won 7 times by finish in his career, which includes 4 wins by KO/TKO, and 3 wins by submission.
Green is the significant favorite, but still looks to be the best betting option. As mentioned, Gibson Jr. has never fought in the UFC, while Green is a UFC veteran. He is an excellent striker as well; therefore, backing Green to win will be our lean
The third fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Melquizael Costa take on Morgan Charriere. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Costa enters this fight with an MMA record of 24-7 and 5-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.44 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Costa absorbs 3.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.96 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 38% and a takedown defense of 58%.
Charriere enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-11-1 and 3-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.08 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Charriere is absorbing 4.54 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 2.11 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 46% and a takedown defense of 83%.
This fight is evenly matched, with Costa set as the small favorite. That being said, he still looks to be the best betting option. Costa has a slight advantage in striking volume, plus is in much better form compared to Charriere. For that reason, backing Costa to win will be our play.
The Co-Main Event at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Giga Chikadze take on Kevin Vallejos. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Chikadze enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-5 and 8-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.82 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Chikadze is absorbing 3.48 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling has not been strong, averaging 0.19 takedowns every 15 minutes. Further, he has a takedown accuracy of 33% and a takedown defense of 65%.
Vallejos enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-1 and 3-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.28 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Vallejos is absorbing 5.23 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. He has been a decent grappler, averaging 0.84 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 33% and his takedown defense is 83%.
Vallejos is the significant favorite; therefore, we will be targeting this fight to go the distance. Chikadze is 1-3 in his last 4 UFC fights; however, all 4 of these fights went the distance. As for Vallejos, he has seen 2 of his 4 UFC fights go the distance. With Chikadze having been able to go the distance in several of his recent fights, backing this fight to go the distance will be our play.
The second fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Kennedy Nzechukwu take on Marcus Buchecha. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Nzechukwu enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-6 and 10-6 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.33 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. Nzechukwu absorbs 4.89 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.55 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 45% and a takedown defense of 80%.
Buchecha enters this fight with an MMA record of 5-2 and 0-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 1.60 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Buchecha absorbs 2.73 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is solid, averaging 1.00 takedowns every 15 minutes. However, he has a takedown accuracy of 9%.
Nzechukwu is the slim favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best betting option. For once, he is a much more experienced UFC fighter, while Buchecha has just 1 UFC fight. Further, Nzechukwu has a significant advantage in striking volume. Therefore, even though Nzechukwu has not been in the best form, backing him to win will be our play.
The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Cesar Almeida take on Cezary Oleksiejczuk. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Almeida enters this fight with an MMA record of 7-1 and 4-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.16 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58% Almeida absorbs 2.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. He has shown no grappling ability in the UFC so far, but has a takedown of 60%.
Oleksiejczuk enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-3 and 1-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 28.33 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 100% Almeida absorbs 0.00 strikes and has a striking defense of 100%. He has shown no grappling ability in the UFC so far, but has a takedown of 100%.
Oleksiejczuk is the heavy favorite in this fight, even though he will be making his official UFC debut. He was more than impressive in his previous fight, winning in the first round while not absorbing a single strike from his opponent. Almeida, on the other hand, is in solid form; however, with Oleksiejczuk having already showcased his striking ability, backing him to win will be our lean.
The Main Event at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Brandon Royval take on Manel Kape. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division. Royval enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-8 and 7-4 in the UFC. He averages 5.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. Royval absorbs 4.23 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.67 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Royval has a takedown accuracy of 75% and a takedown defense of 45%.
Kape enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-7 and 6-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.04 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. Kape is absorbing 4.05 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling has not been very good, averaging just 0.42 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 30% and a takedown defense of 81%.
Kape is the heavy favorite in this fight; therefore, we will be targeting this fight to end inside the distance. Royval has seen 6 of his 11 UFC fights end inside the distance, while Kape has seen his last 2 UFC fights end inside the distance. With that, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be our lean.