UFC Fight Night 270: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy picks, predictions and best bets: Evloev Remains Unbeaten

Sep 7, 2019; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Zubaira Tukhogov (red gloves) fights Lerone Murphy (blue gloves) during UFC 242 at The Arena.

Matthew Lowrimore

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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UFC best bet: Movsar Evloev Win by Decision over Lerone Murphy (-120)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 270 will see Movsar Evloev take on Lerone Murphy. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Evloev enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-0 and 9-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.99 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Evloev absorbs 2.66 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling is also elite, averaging 4.67 takedowns every 15 minutes. Evloev has a takedown accuracy of 48% and a takedown defense of 61%.

Evloev is the clear favorite in this fight; therefore, we will be looking at the method by which he will win. Evloev has won all 9 of his UFC fights by decision and 12 of his 19 career MMA fights. Murphy does have the advantage in striking volume, but Evloev has a significant advantage in grappling, which is where he will likely want this fight.

There is the fact that Murphy is also undefeated, but given that Evloev regularly dominates his opponents on the ground, and the fact that Murphy only has an average takedown defense, backing Evloev to win by decision will be our best bet.

Read our full Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy prediction

UFC prediction: Sam Patterson ML over Michael Page (+150)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +150.

The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 270 will see Michael Page take on Sam Patterson. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Patterson enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-2-1 and 5-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.89 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Patterson is absorbing 3.93 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.39 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.8 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 100% and a takedown defense of 33%.

Page is the heavy betting favorite in this fight; however, Patterson looks to be a great option to pull off the upset. For one, Patterson has won all his UFC fights by finish. He is also more of a balanced fighter, having shown solid grappling ability, compared to Page, who has shown very little. Given that Patterson has the edge in both striking volume and grappling, plus has proven to be able to win quickly, backing Patterson to win will be our best bet.

Read our full Sam Patterson vs. Michael Page prediction

UFC pick: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan – Over 2.5 Total Rounds (-130)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

The second fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 270 will see Roman Dolidze take on Christian Leroy Duncan. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Duncan is the overwhelming favorite in this game; therefore, we will be looking at a total rounds prop. Dolidze has seen 5 of his last 7 UFC fights go over 2.5 rounds, while Duncan has seen 5 of his 7 UFC fights do the same. Both fighters have rarely lost by finish in their careers, especially early in a fight. For that reason, backing over 2.5 total rounds will be our best bet.

Read our full Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan prediction