UFC on ESPN 73: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown picks, predictions and best bets: Bonfim Picks Up a Crucial Win

May 7, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Randy Brown fights against Khaos Williams during UFC 274 at Footprint Center.
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UFC on ESPN 73 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a UFC Welterweight fight between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown as the Main Event. Here are our best bets for this UFC card, which include 3 fights on the Main Card.

Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC on ESPN 73 Main Card fights.

UFC on ESPN 73 Main Card Best Bets

UFC best bet: Gabriel Bonfim ML over Randy Brown (-175)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at -175 or better.

The Main Event at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Gabriel Bonfim take on Randy Brown. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Bonfim enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-1 and 6-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Bonfim is absorbing 3.53 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 4.03 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 55% and his takedown defense is 76%.

Bonfim is the heavy favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best betting option. He has a slight advantage in striking volume and a clear advantage in grappling. For that reason, backing Bonfim to win will be our play.

Read our full Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown prediction

UFC prediction: Ricky Simon ML over Raoni Barcelos (-175)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -175.

The second fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Ricky Simon take on Raoni Barcelos. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Simon enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-6 and 11-5 in the UFC. He averages 2.93 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Simon absorbs 3.72 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling has been elite in the UFC, averaging 5.01 takedowns every 15 minutes. Simon has a takedown accuracy of 43% and a takedown defense of 75%.

Simon is the clear favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best betting option. He has the clear advantage in grappling and is 5-3 in his last 8 UFC fights, compared to Barcelos, who is 4-4 over the same stretch. Therefore, given the form of both fighters, backing Simon to win will be our play.

Read our full Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos prediction

UFC pick: Marco Tulio ML over Christian Leroy Duncan (-185)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -185.

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Christian Leroy Duncan take on Marco Tulio. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Tulio enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-1 and 4-0 in the UFC. He averages 7.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. Tulio absorbs 2.53 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling has been decent at best, averaging 0.88 takedowns every 15 minutes.

Tulio is the heavy favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best betting option. He has superior striking volume, while also having never lost in the UFC. Further, his grappling is also better; therefore, backing Tulio to win will be our play.

Read our full Marco Tulio vs. Christian Leroy Duncan prediction

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