After a long and eventful season, the college football regular season is over and conference championship weekend is here. Most of the conference title matchups this weekend have College Football Playoff implications, but that is not the case in the Mountain West. On one side, Boise State looked like the class of this conference until quarterback Maddux Madsen suffered an injury in early November. The Broncos stumbled a bit in the weeks that followed, but they’ve managed to get themselves back on track and have now snuck into the title game as a result. On the other side, UNLV is a team that has also gone through some ups-and-downs in the middle of the conference portion of its schedule, but the Rebels still finished the year strong to advance to the title game for the second consecutive season.
With kickoff set for 8:00 PM ET on the blue turf in Boise, Idaho, a Mountain West Championship Same Game Parlay is in order with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s get into the picks, but don’t forget our NCAAF predictions for every Championship Week matchup.
Boise State ML (-176)
1st Half Under 30.5 (-125)
Jai’Den Thomas (ULV) anytime TD (-140)
Mountain West Championship Same Game Parlay odds: +384
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Boise State Broncos ML (-176)
Given the fact that Madsen is expected to be back in the lineup for Boise State, this line looks a bit short given where it was at in their previous meeting. However, instead of backing Boise State on the spread, I’ll take the Broncos on the money line in order to avoid a potential backdoor opportunity for UNLV. Back when these two teams played back in October, the Broncos were laying nearly two touchdowns at home and still covered the spread with ease in a 56-31 drubbing of the Rebels, a game in which Boise State averaged nearly 10 yards per play. While I don’t anticipate a similar margin of victory on Friday, there’s little reason to think that the Broncos shouldn’t be able to score against this very poor UNLV defense (112th in success rate allowed), especially with their quarterback back in the lineup. I’ll back Boise State on the blue turf for yet another year.
Check out our full Mountain West Championship predictions
1st Half Under 30.5 (-125)
While the first meeting between these teams featured plenty of fireworks, I’m a bit more bullish on the under on Friday. However, I’d rather steer clear of the full game total given the potential for late scores in a game that could come down to the wire. With that in mind, the 1st half under is currently being priced a few points too high at FanDuel, which is where our SGP is being placed. Most other shops in market have this total listed around 28.5, and there could be some value in grabbing a few extra points around a key number. After all, it’s not a guarantee that Madsen picks up where he left off a month ago, and both teams in general should look to lean on their rushing attacks given that cold temperatures and rain are expected on Friday evening.
Jai’Den Thomas (UNLV) anytime TD (-140)
To close out our Mountain West title game SGP, let’s back UNLV running back Jai’Den Thomas to find the end zone for the 13th time this season. The Rebels are no stranger to putting up a ton of points, and UNLV’s offense did just fine in this building back in October, even in a losing effort. Thomas was a part of that scoring, as the Rebels bellcow in the backfield recorded a touchdown in the loss, one of his 12 scores on the ground this season. The Broncos are not known for their rush defense, so it wouldn’t shock me at all if Thomas found the end zone for the 5th time over his last 7 games played on Friday.
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