Ricky Dimon
Quarterfinal action at the U.S. Open wraps up on Wednesday, as the fields of 128 will be down to 4 on both the men’s and women’s sides. Among those taking the court are Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti, Iga Swiatek and Naomi Osaka.
Here are my best bets for Day 11 at Flushing Meadows.
Felix Auger-Aliassime +1.5 sets over Alex de Minaur (-136)
Auger-Aliassime leads the head-to-head series 3-2 overall and has won 8 of their 12 total sets. Simply put, this is a matchup that he wins if he plays well. The Canadian wields far more offensive weapons and his style is way more aggressive. He can sometimes beat himself and De Minaur often makes opponents do that, but right now it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. Auger-Aliassime has been awesome so far this fortnight, especially in the last 2 rounds against Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev. De Minaur has impressed, as well, but the Aussie has not faced anyone in the top 50 of the rankings and just 1 opponent in the top 80. A sizable step up in competition could mark the end of the road for him. At the very least, FAA should be able to take this match to 5 sets.
Karolina Muchova +1.5 sets over Naomi Osaka (-134)
Similar to the case with De Minaur vs Auger-Aliassime, the underdog has a good chance to win this one outright. Again, though, there is even better value on simply forcing a final set. Muchova should be able to do it. The Czech may eventually run out of gas since she has played 4 consecutive 3-set matches, but she should at least be competitive for a while. She is one of the best players in the world when healthy – even better than her #13 ranking indicates. The head-to-head series is all tied up at 2-2 and not once has Osaka prevailed in straight sets. They met at this same tournament just last year and Muchova got the job done 6-3, 7-6(5). Osaka did look good against a wildly out-of-sorts Coco Gauff in the fouth round, but she remains inconsistent. Getting past Muchova without any problems does not seem likely.
Iga Swiatek Under 4.5 service breaks vs Amanada Anisimova (-130)
Swiatek and Anisimova infamously squared off in the Wimbledon final earlier this summer, when the Pole issued a 6-0, 6-0 double-bagel. There were obviously 6 breaks in that match, but it’s hard to see Swiatek enjoying that kind returning success in Wednesday’s rematch. This is still a big match, but it’s not a Grand Slam final. As such, Anisimova should handle the situation much better. Serving conditions should also be favorable on a fast outdoor hard court and during the day instead of at night. It won’t be easy for either player to break serve. It is worth remembering that Anisimova did not generate a single break point in the Wimbledon championship match. Meanwhile, the American has lost her serve only 7 times through four rounds and has faced a grand total of 15 break points. If this is a long match, it’s probably because Anisimova is holding serve on a consistent basis – not due to breaking each other a bunch of times. If it’s a quick match, Swiatek probably won’t have enough time (in terms of total number of games played) to break more than 4 times.
