Ricky Dimon
And then there were 4…. The men take center stage at the U.S. Open on Friday, when Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Felix Auger-Aliassime are bidding for spots in Sunday’s championship match. It starts in the afternoon with Alcaraz vs Djokovic before the night session features Sinner and Auger-Aliassime.
Here are my best bets for Day 13 at Flushing Meadows.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Over 37.5 games (-110)
Let’s get this out of the way: Djokovic is not going to win this match with ease. Alcaraz is simply too good. The second-ranked Spaniard is 44-2 in his last 46 matches dating back to the start of the clay-court swing; 1 of his losses during this stretch has come to Sinner and the other was due to injury.
So, when it comes to the over/under the question is if Djokovic can be competitive. I think the answer is yes. Alcaraz is a sizable favorite – and for good reason – but Djokovic cannot be entirely written off. The 38-year-old may have slumped to #7 in the rankings, but he is still a force at Grand Slams. He isn’t motivated at any of the other tournaments, but slams still pique his interest. This is Djokovic’s fourth semifinal appearance in 4 majors this season. The Serb looked good in the last 2 rounds against Jan-Lennard Struff and Taylor Fritz, so he should be confident heading into Friday. He can take even more confidence in a 5-3 head-to-head record against Alcaraz, which includes 2 wins a row. Another fun one between these 2 rivals could be in the cards.
Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Under 31.5 games (-115)
The second semifinal will probably be a lot different. Sinner is in simply dominant form. The top-ranked Italian has won the last 3 hard-court majors and it looks like he could be on his way to another triumph given how well he is playing. The 24-year-old most recently erased compatriot Lorenzo Musetti 6-1, 6-4, 6-2, this after disposing of Alexander Bublik 6-1, 6-1, 6-1. Only 1 of Sinner’s matches is New York has exceeded this 31.5 quota. In fact, only 1 has resulted in more than 25 games.
It’s hard to see Auger-Aliassime reversing that trend. The 27th-ranked Canadian has been playing great this fortnight, but he required 4 hours and 10 minutes to get past Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals on Wednesday. Recovering from that with just 1 day off and then facing the #1 player in the world is far from a recipe for success. Adding insult to injury, Sinner destroyed Auger-Aliassime 6-0, 6-2 a month ago in Cincinnati.
