Ricky Dimon
Fourth-round competition at the US Open wraps up on Monday in New York, where Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka are among those taking the court. A showdown between Gauff and Osaka is the obvious headliner. Let’s get into my US Open best bets for Monday, September 1, as we look to have ourselves a successful Labor Day.
US Open best bet: Andrey Rublev ML over Felix Auger-Aliassime (-138)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
The head-to-head history is the key factor in this matchup, and really all that matters when it comes to breaking it down. Andrey Rublev is dominating the H2H 7-1, including 5 wins in a row since his lone loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam in 2022. They have met twice so far in 2025; Rublev prevailed in a 3rd-set tiebreaker in Doha and then rolled 6-1, 6-4 on the clay of Hamburg.
Auger-Aliassime has been playing great through 3 rounds at Flushing Meadows, but Rublev has also looked good. Simply put, this is a stylistic matchup that clearly favors the Russian. FAA’s groundstrokes can go off the rails when he isn’t timing them perfectly, and Rublev is a player who can take time away from opponents. It’s also worth noting that Rublev is 10-6 lifetime in the 4th round of Grand Slams.
US Open Parlay: Iga Swiatek ML over Ekaterina Alexandrova and Lorenzo Musetti ML over Jaume Munar (+105)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
Iga Swiatek is looking every bit like the favorite on the women’s side. The recent Cincinnati champion struggled for a while against Anna Kalinskaya in round 3, but a minor wakeup call may not be a bad thing. Swiatek has won 4 of her last 5 encounters with Ekaterina Alexandrova and her last 2 victories have come in straight sets.
As for Lorenzo Musetti, he has climbed to #10 in the rankings and would be even higher if not for the occasional injury. The Italian has simply been playing awesome tennis dating back to 2024. He is the essence of an all-court player, having already reached major semifinals at Wimbledon (2024) and Roland Garros (2025). Jaume Munar is also an all-courter, but he has done by far his best work on clay.
US Open prediction: Marta Kostyuk +2.5 games over Karolina Muchova (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
Karolina Muchova has played 3 straight 3-set matches, 1 against 45-year-old Venus Williams and the last 2 of which were especially difficult. How much does the 29-year-old Czech have left in the tank? She will probably need everything against Marta Kostyuk, who reached the quarterfinals in Montreal a few weeks ago and is 1 victory away from doing the same at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
Muchova wasn’t in great form coming into this event and she has never been the most reliable player from a physical standpoint. It would not be a surprise if she is less than 100 percent for Monday. This sets up well for Kostyuk, who also has a good chance to win it outright.
