Ricky Dimon
Third-round action at the U.S. Open continues on Saturday in New York, where Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Tommy Paul, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff are taking the court. It was not a good day for the host nation on Friday, and now both Paul and Gauff could be hard-pressed to produce positive results on the American side.
Here are my favorite bets for Day 7.
Magdalena Frech +5.5 games over Coco Gauff (+105)
There is no way to sugarcoat it – Gauff’s game is in absolute shambles. The world #3 somehow managed to beat Ajla Tomljanovic and Donna Vekic in the first 2 rounds, but those performances hardly suggest that she has recovered from the disaster that was the Cincinnati tournament earlier this month. Gauff is still double-faulting all over the place (18 through 2 matches in New York). It got so bad during the first set that she was reduced to tears in the first set against Vekic. Frech does not have much firepower, but she is a consistent baseliner who can keep balls in play and make opponents beat themselves. That is exactly what Gauff might do in this one. At the very least, the Pole should cover a lofty spread.
Zizou Bergs +1.5 sets over Jaume Munar (-104)
This is a huge match for both Munar and Bergs. Neither man has ever advanced to the fourth round of a slam, so they will surely be feeling the pressure. It’s hard to see either one getting across the finish line without showing some nerves. Bergs crushed Chun-Hsin Tseng in the opening round and got a walkover from Jack Draper in round 2. The benefit of even having to play a match to advance at a Grand Slam should not be underestimated in terms of staying physically and mentally fresh. Although Munar is a decent all-court player, clay is by far his best surface. On a hard court, asking Bergs to simply take 2 sets should not be too much.
Tommy Paul vs. Alexander Bublik Under 40.5 games (-115)
The under is generally the way to play matches involving Bublik, and this one against Paul is no exception. The Kazakh is usually either amazing or terrible. There isn’t much in between. Dating back to the spring, the good version of Bublik has been on display. The 28-year-old is on a 10-match winning streak and boasts a 19-2 record in his last 21 matches. Both of his first 2 matches at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center lasted only 27 games. Now he faces an opponent in Paul who required 4 hours and 25 minutes to beat Nuno Borges on Thursday night. If the American is still feeling it in the legs, Bublik has a chance to blow him off the court. But if the bad version of Bublik suddenly shows back up, he could just as easily lose in swift fashion.
