Ricky Dimon
The women take center stage at the U.S. Open on Thursday, when Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, Amanda Anisimov and Naomi Osaka are bidding for spots in Saturday’s championship match. Both semifinal matches are getting primetime billing, starting with Sabalenka vs Pegula and culminating in Anisimova vs Osaka.
Here are my best bets for Day 12 at Flushing Meadows.
Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 sets over Jessica Pegula (-102)
Everything is working in Sabalenka’s favor when it comes to this matchup. Simply put, she is the much better player. The Belarusian comes in at #1 in the world and she is a 3-time Grand Slam champion. Pegula, ranked #4, is through to the semis of a major for just the second time in her career. The only other occasion came at the 2024 U.S. Open, when 31-year-old American reached the final but lost to none other than Sabalenka 7-5, 7-5. That result is part of a 3-match winning streak (all 3 on outdoor hard courts) in the head-to-head series for Sabalenka, who most recently prevailed 7-5, 6-2 this spring in Miami. Overall she has won 7 of their 9 meetings. In fact, in Pegula’s 7 losses she has never even forced a tiebreaker.
Sabalenka has not lost a set through 5 rounds at Flushing Meadows and she will be especially well rested after getting a quarterfinal walkover from an injured Marketa Vondrousova. Count on the top seed once again wielding too much firepower for Pegula in these relatively fast conditions.
Amanda Anisimova ML over Naomi Osaka (+112)
It’s time to get on the Anisimova bandwagon – or back on it if you went on it at Wimbledon. That’s where the American made a run to the final before losing to Iga Swiatek 6-0, 6-0. Two months later, Anisimova turned it all the way around in the U.S. Open quarterfinals with a 6-4, 6-3 upset of Swiatek on Wednesday afternoon. If you can recover from that kind humiliation the way that Anisimova did, there’s nothing you can’t do do. And the world #9 can definitely beat Osaka. In fact, she has already done it twice in 2 previous head-to-head meetings.
That’s not to say it will be easy, because the 27-year-old from Japan is also playing well. However, Osaka has not faced anyone during this event who can take her time away with offensive weaponry in the way that Anisimova is capable of doing. Beating Coco Gauff was a nice win for Osaka, but Gauff is a shadow of her real self right now. Anisimova has good value as the underdog in this must-watch matchup.
