Ricky Dimon
Second-round competition at the U.S. Open continues on Thursday, when Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff are among those taking the court. I went 5-1 on Monday and Tuesday – would have been 6-0 if Matteo Arnaldi had not blown a 2-set lead against Francisco Cerundolo – so let’s keep the momentum going!
Here are my favorite bets for Day 5 schedule.
Karolina Muchova ML over Sorana Cirstea (-125)
Muchova played perhaps the marquee match of the entire first round, snagging a 3-set win over Venus Williams on Monday night. Obviously dropping a set to a 45-year-old does not look great on paper, but Williams actually played pretty well and Muchova recovered from losing the second to dominate the third 6-1. Her reward is a seventh encounter with Cirstea, against whom the Czech absolutely owns the head-to-head series. Muchova is 5-1 lifetime and has won 3 straight — all of those coming in 2 sets without even going to a single tiebreaker. They squared off at this same tournament in the 2023 quarterfinals, where Muchova rolled 6-0, 6-3. As if that isn’t enough, Cirstea is coming off a title in Cleveland last week. The Romanian is playing well, but she has to be tired. All signs point to Muchova winning in convincing fashion.
Flavio Cobolli -2.5 games over Jenson Brooksby (-115)
Brooksby’s comeback from a 2-year absence related to both injury and suspension has been productive, but since winning the Houston title (on clay) in April he has beaten only 1 player ranked as high as Cobolli (#26) — and that was #20 Ugo Humbert, who is hopelessly out of form at the moment. Cobolli extended Ben Shelton to a third-set tiebreaker at the Toronto Masters earlier this month Shelton went on to win the tournament. Cobolli’s loss to Terence Atmane in a third-set tiebreaker in Cincinnati suddenly looks like a decent result (Atmane went on to reach the semifinals). The Italian clearly loves the big stage, too, having advanced to the Wimbledon quarters earlier this summer. Brooksby won their only previous meeting, but that was 3 years ago and it was on clay — so it is hardly relevant to Thursday’s contest.
Gabriel Diallo ML over Jaume Munar (-110)
It’s hard to believe that Diallo isn’t a bigger favorite in this one. Last summer Diallo qualified for the U.S. Open main draw, beat none other than Munar in the first round, upset Arthur Fils in the second and then pushed Tommy Paul to a fourth-set tiebreaker in the third. Fast forward 12 months and the 6’8” Canadian is up to #33 in the world; he is a far better player than he was just last summer. That is bad news for Munar, who also lost to Diallo 7-5, 6-3 earlier this summer on the grass courts of Mallorca. There is no reason to think that Diallo won’t get the job done again on Thursday.
