Third-round action at the US Open gets underway on Friday in New York, where Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton, Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, Mirra Andreeva, Elena Rybakina and Emma Raducanu are on the schedule. With a star-studded lineup of players, let’s get into my US Open best bets for Day 6 on Friday, August 29.
US Open best bet: Emma Raducanu +3.5 games over Elena Rybakina (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
Is Raducanu turning back the clock to 2021? She still has a way – a long way – to go before she can possibly win another US Open title 2 Sundays from now, but suddenly it’s not looking entirely out of the question. The 22-year-old Brit is finally playing great tennis again, headlined by fantastic matches (albeit losses) to Sabalenka at Wimbledon and in Cincinnati. Raducanu has been dominant through 2 rounds in New York, whereas Rybakina has survived some pretty tough matches. The Kazakh is in decent enough form, but her #10 ranking is well off her career-high mark of #3. This is a winnable match for the underdog.
US Open prediction: Jasmine Paolini ML over Marketa Vondrousova (-115)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
Jasmine Paolini is in resurgent form. On the heels of a breakthrough 2024 campaign in which she finished runner-up at both the French Open and Wimbledon, the Italian slumped a bit earlier this season. However, the spring and summer have been productive. She reached the final in Cincinnati, beating Grand Slam champions Barbora Krejcikova and Coco Gauff before falling to Iga Swiatek. Paolini also reached the 4th round at Roland Garros in singles and won the doubles title with Sara Errani. The world #8 played great again on Wednesday, easing past up-and-coming American Iva Jovic 6-3, 6-3. Marketa Vondrousova is a difficult 3rd-round draw, but outdoor hard courts probably have to be considered her worst surface.
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US Open Parlay: Jessica Pegula ML over Victoria Azarenka and Frances Tiafoe ML over Jan-Lennard Struff (-132)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Pegula vs Victoria Azarenka is an enticing matchup on paper, but I’m not sure it will turn out to be competitive on the court. Azarenka is a 2-time US Open runner-up, but the most recent of those performances came in 2020. The 36-year-old is now well past her prime. Pegula has also reached a US Open final, doing so just last summer. The 30-year-old may not be playing quite as well this season, but – unlike her opponent – she remains an outside slam title contender.
Meanwhile, this is by far Tiafoe’s favorite tournament. The 17th-ranked American has reached the semifinals twice (2022, 2024) and has not lost prior to the quarters since 2021 or prior to the 4th round since 2019. Jan-Lennard Struff is dangerous, but fatigue may start to be a factor. The 35-year-old German has already played 5 matches in NYC (3 in qualifying) and is coming off a 5-set marathon against Holger Rune on Wednesday night.
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