Ricky Dimon
Third-round action at the U.S. Open gets underway on Friday in New York, where Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton, Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, Mirra Andreeva, Elena Rybakina and Emma Raducanu are on the schedule.
Here are my favorite bets for Day 6.
Emma Raducanu +3.5 games over Elena Rybakina (-110)
Is Raducanu turning back the clock to 2021? She still has a ways – a long ways – to go before she can possibly win another U.S. Open title 2 Sundays from now, but suddenly it’s not looking entirely out of the question. The 22-year-old Brit is finally playing great tennis again, headlined by fantastic matches (albeit losses) to Sabalenka at Wimbledon and in Cincinnati. Raducanu has been dominant through 2 rounds in New York, whereas Rybakina has survived some pretty tough matches. The Kazakh is in decent enough form, but her #10 ranking is well off her career-high mark of #3. This is a winnable match for the underdog.
Jasmine Paolini ML over Marketa Vondrousova (-115)
Paolini is in resurgent form. On the heels of a breakthrough 2024 campaign in which she finished runner-up at both the French Ope and Wimbledon, the Italian slumped a but earlier this season. However, the spring and summer have been productive. She reached the final in Cincinnati, beating Grand Slam champions Barbora Krejcikova and Coco Gauff before falling to Iga Swiatek. Paolini also reached the fourth round at Roland Garros in singles and won the doubles title with Sara Errani. The world #8 played great again on Wednesday, easing past up-and-coming American Iva Jovic 6-3, 6-3. Vondrousova is a difficult third-round draw, but outdoor hard courts probably have to be considered her worst surface.
Parlay: Jessica Pegula ML over Victoria Azarenka and Frances Tiafoe ML over Jan-Lennard Struff (-132)
Pegula vs Azarenka is an enticing matchup on paper, but I’m not sure it will turn out to be competitive on the court. Azarenka is a 2-time U.S. Open runner-up, but the most recent of those performances came in 2020. The 36-year-old is now well past her prime. Pegula has also reached a U.S. Open final, doing so just last summer. The 30-year-old may not be playing quite as well this season, but – unlike her opponent – she remains an outside slam title contender. Meanwhile, this is by far Tiafoe’s favorite tournament. The 17th-ranked American has reached the semifinals twice (2022, 2024) and has not lost prior to the quarters since 2021 or prior to the fourth round since 2019. Struff is dangerous, but fatigue may start to be a factor. The 35-year-old German has already played 5 matches in NYC (3 in qualifying) and is coming off a 5-set marathon against Holger Rune on Wednesday night.
