There may not be any College Football Playoff games on Saturday, but there will still be plenty of football action from 11:00 am ET all the way until midnight. Among the 8 bowl games being played on Saturday is the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, which pits the Virginia Cavaliers and the Missouri Tigers at 7:30 pm ET on ABC.
To get you set for the Gator Bowl, I’ve compiled a few of my favorite picks and assembled a Virginia vs. Missouri Same Game Parlay with odds courtesy of bet365. Let’s get into the picks before you check out our NCAAF predictions for EVERY game on Saturday’s card and beyond.
Missouri -4 (-110)
Ahmad Hardy (MIZ) 2+ Touchdowns (+175)
Chandler Morris (UVA) Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Virginia vs. Missouri Same Game Parlay odds: +575
Missouri Tigers -4 over Virginia Cavaliers
The Tigers will be without starting QB Beau Pribula and will be down 2 receivers from an already-thin group, but I am still happy to lay the points with the Tigers against what I perceive to be an overvalued Virginia squad – mostly because of Missouri’s run game and defense.
Ahmad Hardy just “re-signed” (I’m not used to that yet in college football) with Missouri about a week ago, so he will be back in Columbia next year and should be full-go for this game. The future-pro tailback has rushed for more than 1,500 yards this season, scoring 16 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. His 1,111 yards after contact is the best at the power-conference level by a decent margin, displaying a tackle-breaking, post-contact ability that Virginia has not seen at any point this season. Don’t get me wrong, Virginia has very sound defensive metrics, but consider the level of opponent. The best runners the Cavaliers faced were out of NC State and Louisville’s backfields, and NCSU RB Hollywood Smothers ran for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Louisville’s RB tandem of Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown averaged over 5 yards per carry on 16 attempts. For my money, Hardy is better than all of those guys.
On the other side of the ball, Virginia has a dynamic runner in J’Mari Taylor, who has over 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns himself. However, as of Friday around noon ET, he’s still unsure of whether or not he’s going to suit up for Saturday’s Gator Bowl. Even if he plays, he meets a tough test against a Missouri defense that was top-20 on standard downs and top-45 in PPA per rush since the end of October. Over the course of the entire season, the Tigers finished top-15 in PPA per play and success rate allowed with a top-5 havoc rate, which all rank ahead of Virginia despite a harder strength of schedule.
The toughest defensive opponents Virginia played this year were Louisville, Washington State, and Wake Forest, and the Cavaliers averaged about 12 points fewer per game in those 3 contests than their season average. Now, they go up against a bigger, more athletic defensive front in Missouri that held multiple SEC opponents to 20 points or less. I’m all over the Tigers here.
Read our full Missouri vs Virginia prediction for picks on side and total of the Gator Bowl
Ahmad Hardy (MIZ) To Score 2+ Touchdowns
With the multiple offense opt-outs in conjunction with his re-signing, this game really could turn into the Hardy show. His anytime touchdown prop is juiced to an unplayable number, so let’s go for more of a ceiling play on the SEC’s leading rusher – as I’m expecting him to have a game similar to that of Smothers earlier this year when Virginia played NC State. Hardy has scored multiple touchdowns 4 different times this year, and with 20+ carries, he should have plenty of chances to cross the goal line twice.
Chandler Morris (UVA) Under 221.5 Passing Yards
Only 2 quarterbacks have surpassed this number against Missouri’s defense, and both happened back in September when Kansas’ Jalon Daniels threw for 223 yards and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers threw for 300+. Since then, the Tigers held Alabama’s Ty Simpson to 200 yards, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia to 129 yards, and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed to 221 yards — just to name a few. Now Chandler Morris will have a shot at this Tiger defense that ranks top-35 in PPA per pass, passing success rate, and passing explosiveness since Week 9. Over the course of the entire season, Missouri is top-10 in total passing yards allowed, yards per attempt, and yards per game. As I previously mentioned, Missouri’s defense is a decent step up in class compared to who the Cavaliers have played this season, which doesn’t bode well for Morris and the Cavs – especially if Taylor and WR Trell Harris don’t play.
Now find our NCAAF best bets for Saturday’s bowl slate
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