Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs. It’s a huge matchup between 2 teams with playoff aspirations – and in the Chiefs’ case, even more. For the Commanders, though, it’s already approaching must-win territory with a 3-4 record. Kansas City comes in at 4-3 and has won 4 of its last 5 games. Let’s dive into my Commanders vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay picks for MNF, which gets underway at 8:15 pm ET on ABC and ESPN. You can also find out our NFL picks for this matchup and EVERY GAME in the 2025 NFL season.
Commanders +10.5 (-105)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to record 60+ rushing yards (+159)
Rashee Rice to score a touchdown (-105)
Commanders vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay odds: +750
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Washington running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt rushing his fair share of yards would obviously work well with a cover by the Commanders. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Kansas City receiver Rashee Rice to find the end zone. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t keep this within a huge number. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Washington Commanders +10.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (-105)
The Chiefs are looking like a well-oiled machine – at least relative to what they were through 2 weeks – now that Rice is back, but I’m still not willing to give more than 10 points. After all, Washington is a respectable outfit. Sure, a losing record after 7 games is not what this team envisioned. Still, the Commanders have lost by double-digits only once this season and they also boast a 17-point win over the Chargers. Jayden Daniels is out, which is exactly why the visitors are getting so many points. It’s a spread Marcus Mariota should be able to cover. Mariota is nothing special, of course, but he has a ton of experience and has played pretty well in 2 of 3 games so far in 2025. Give me Washington to cover on the road in this one.
Read our full Commanders vs Chiefs prediction for MNF — our experts have a 135-104-1 record this season for +50.3 units!
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to record 60+ rushing yards (+159)
I think Croskey-Merritt is in line for a big night. For multiple reasons, Washington will want to run the football. For starters, Daniels is out. Secondly, the best defense against an in-form Kansas City offense is to keep it off the field for as long as possible. As considerable underdogs, the Commanders need to shorten the game and relegate Patrick Mahomes and company to the sideline. The way to do that is by handing the ball off to JCM early and often. The rookie out of Arizona has already exceeded the 60-yard mark three times this year, including twice in the last 3 games. The Chiefs are awesome against the pass (third in passing defense and eighth in yards per attempt allowed), but they are quite generous against the run (4.5 yards per carry allowed). Bill should be able to capitalize on this ideal opportunity.
Prop Holliday nailed a +385 winner on MNF last week! Check out his best Commanders vs Chiefs player prop bets for tonght
Rashee Rice to score a touchdown (-105)
Rice returned from a 6-game suspension last week, and to say that he made an immediate impact would be a gross understatement. The SMU product caught 7 of 10 targets for 42 yards and 2 touchdowns during a 31-0 humiliation of Las Vegas. He now faces a Washington defense that is dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed and has surrendered 12 touchdowns through the air compared to a modest 5 on the ground. Needless to say, Rice has a great chance to score on Monday Night Football.
After a +500 winner on MNF last week, find out our expert’s Commanders vs Chiefs touchdown scorer best bets at +200 odds!
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