Sam Avellone
Saturday is the day we’ve all been waiting for – the official start of the college football season. We’ve had Week 0 and some appetizers on Thursday and Friday, but this is the real deal. Week 1 lines have been out for nearly 2 months, so nothing is going to jump off the screen that you haven’t already seen. However, there are a few spots on Saturday’s college football betting card that I certainly like more than the rest.
Let’s parlay those picks together and cheer for a juicy payout on the first full Saturday of the season. Don’t forget our NCAAF picks for all of the biggest games this week and beyond.
Toledo +10 (-110)
UTSA vs Texas A&M over 56.5 (-110)
Utah ML (-210)
Week 1 Saturday NCAA parlay odds: +438
Odds available at bet365 at the time of publishing.
Toledo Rockets +10 vs Kentucky Wildcats (-110)
Toledo is my Group of 5 pick to make the College Football Playoff, and it all rides on the Rockets getting a win in Lexington on Saturday. This line was closer to a touchdown a couple weeks ago and has since ballooned to 10 points, which is mildly concerning, but Week 1 steam isn’t necessarily predictive – so I’m going to take a piece of the Rockets getting double digits as a road underdog.
This Toledo program has recently played power conference opponents very closely. Outside of the 2022 game against Ohio State, the Rockets lost to Notre Dame by 3 in 2021, lost to Illinois by 2 in 2023, and beat both Mississippi State and Pitt last year – the former in convincing fashion and the latter in a 6-overtime bowl-game thriller. With more than 70% of its offense back from last year, the Rockets should once again be live to upset a power conference foe at the start the college football season. Look for the Rockets to utilize a strong and deep running back room to put together quality drives, and don’t be surprised to see UK quarterback Zach Calzada turn it over against what projects to be a strong Toledo secondary.
Find the 3 college football best bets we are targeting for Saturday
UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas A&M Aggies over 56.5 (-110)
The Roadrunners have been top 25 nationally in plays per game and seconds per play each of the last 3 seasons, and this season should be no different with over 80% of their offensive production returning to San Antonio after finishing 2nd in plays per game and 14th in seconds per play in 2024. Any points from the Roadrunners help for an over in this game, but their fast tempo also creates more possessions for Texas A&M’s offense to put points on the board against an inferior defense that was outside the top 100 in opposing scoring last year. UTSA’s pace doesn’t allow its defense to rest very much, which is a recipe for a disaster against power conference offenses as talented as Texas A&M. Just look at the last 2 seasons. The Roadrunners gave up 45 points to Tennessee before Texas dropped 56 on them last year.
This Texas A&M offense is loaded with high-level recruits, most of whom have experience playing with each other. Quarterback Marcel Reed is the bonafide starter playing behind an offensive line that returns quite literally everyone from last year, alongside a running back room that could be one of the most dangerous in the country. Reed also benefits from substantial talent improvement in the receiver room with the additions of KC Concepcion and Mario Craver via the transfer portal. All things considered, I don’t see how UTSA stops this Texas A&M offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Aggies almost surpass this number themselves.
Check out our full UTSA vs Texas A&M prediction, including picks on the side and total
Utah Utes ML over UCLA Bruins (-210)
Utah may be playing this game on the road against a former conference foe, but I much prefer the Utes in this matchup for a few reasons. First, Utah has a significant coaching advantage with Kyle Whittingham at the helm opposite UCLA’s DeShaun Foster. Second, I would argue Utah has the quarterback advantage in this matchup. While Nico Iamaleava made more noise in the transfer portal, Devon Dampier has been a bit more productive as a college quarterback and will be comfortable in his new surroundings having followed his offensive coordinator to Utah in the offseason. Look for Utah’s offense to be strong on the ground with Dampier as a runner in tandem with transfer running backs Wayshawn Parker and NaQuarui Rogers.
Finally, Utah has a bit more defensive continuity than UCLA, who returns fewer than 40% of its production from last year – ranking outside the top 110. In fact, the Bruins lost multiple pieces to the NFL, so expect them to take a step back after finishing top 40 in total defense. Whittingham is going to have these boys ready to go after a disappointing 2024 season; give me the Utes to win outright to round out this Saturday parlay.
