Sam Avellone
If you are someone that does not recognize Week 0 as the official start of the college football season, then you will be thrilled to know that Thursday is that day. While Thursday’s matchups aren’t overly exciting, there’s football from 5:30pm ET until well after midnight, which means there are plenty of opportunities to build your bankroll ahead of this Saturday’s massive slate of games.
After going through all of the coaching changes and roster turnover, I found a couple bets I like on Thursday’s card more than the rest. Let’s dive into the analysis on those picks, and if you’re looking for more college football betting action, make sure to check out our Week 1 predictions for every game, in addition to our Week 1 best bets.
Thursday Week 1 NCAAF best bets
South Florida Bulls ML over Boise State Broncos (+190)
Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
The Bulls are live to win this game, especially with a healthy Byrum Brown back under center. Brown injects life into this offense with his ability to find hidden yards as a runner, which pairs nicely with his ability to push the ball down the field as a passer. He certainly has been known to frequently put the ball into harm’s way, but his 20 big-time throws in 2023 highlight his upside as a down-the-field threat if defenses sell out on the run.
Speaking of the run, we are likely to see plenty of it from USF on Thursday evening. Not only is Brown a very good runner, but he has a couple of transfer running backs with him in the backfield this year that I really like. Cartevious Norton transferred in from Charlotte after finishing 6th in the AAC in missed tackles forced despite having 40-100 less attempts than the 5 AAC backs that finished ahead of him. At 5’11” and 222 pounds, expect Norton to create plenty of missed tackles against this Boise State defense that was horrendous in tackling last year. In fact, the Broncos were 131st nationally in PFF’s tackling grade in DC Erik Chinader’s first season in the role.
I also expect big things from Sam Franklin, who transferred in from Oklahoma. Franklin wasn’t utilized much in Norman, but he was an All-American at the FCS level in 3 years with UT-Martin. In 2023, he had nearly 1,400 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 223 carries while averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. He also forced 54 missed tackles, which was top 10 in the FCS that year. Needless to say, the 3-headed monster of Brown, Norton, and Franklin in USF’s backfield may be difficult to corral for Boise’s defense.
If the Bulls find success offensively, it’s going to put extra pressure on Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen, who is already facing added pressure with Ashton Jeanty off to the NFL. Taking Jeanty off this offense may hinder Madsen, as the focus will be shifted back to him more than it was last year when Jeanty was the focal point of opposing defensive game plans. While Madsen’s 23 touchdowns to 6 interceptions looks good on paper, he had just 9 big-time throws to 20 turnover-worthy plays in 14 games. Those 20 turnover-worthy plays were tied for 6th-most nationally. If we’re being honest with ourselves, Madsen was fortunate to throw only 6 interceptions last year. Without Jeanty, expect that number to balloon starting Thursday night on the road against a USF secondary that returns its leader in interceptions, 2 of its top 3 in pass-breakups, and 3 of its top 4 in PFF coverage grade.
I understand why Boise is favored in this game, but I’m going against the Broncos on the road in Tampa. I like the matchup of USF’s run game against a Boise defense that tackles poorly, and I see Boise’s offense struggling to sustain drives on the shoulder of Madsen without the reliability of Jeanty out of the backfield.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights first half -8 over Ohio Bobcats (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at the time of publishing.
Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano loves to run up the score against inferior opponents early in the season, so it makes sense that the full game line steamed up to -15.5 from -11 over the last few weeks. I’m not going to chase that many points in Week 1, but rather shift my focus to the first half, where I can get Rutgers at a cheaper price.
I’m fully expecting the Scarlet Knights to start fast here. They are 3rd nationally in returning offensive production after finishing in the top half of the country in scoring last year. They will have to replace leading rusher Kyle Monangai and leading receiver Dymere Miller, but there’s reason to be excited about this unit albeit those departures. Schiano brought in a highly productive running back in FAU transfer CJ Campbell, who gained just over 1,300 total yards with 14 total touchdowns last year, and he will be running behind an offensive line that returns 4 starters. The Knights also bring back quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, as well as 3 of his 5 favorite targets from a season ago – including Ian Strong and KJ Duff.
Kaliakmanis led the Big Ten in average depth of target when kept clean in the pocket, so expect the Rutgers pass-catchers to be active downfield against the Bobcats. I’m also expecting this bunch to be dangerous after the catch, especially with the addition of North Texas transfer DT Sheffield – who led the Mean Green in receiving, scored 11 touchdowns, and averaged 8.5 yards after catch per reception. Sheffield will pair nicely with Strong, who averaged 5.1 yards after catch per reception, which was top 30 in the Big Ten in 2024.
This extremely experienced offense is going to have the pleasure of going up against a defense that was completely overhauled in the offseason. Ohio head coach Tim Albin left for Charlotte, and while the new coach and current defensive coordinator were both with the program last year, they are leading a unit with only 35% of its production back from last season’s conference championship team – which led the MAC in scoring and total defense. The Bobcats lost most of their key defensive producers, as a couple went to power conference programs, while others followed Albin to Charlotte. In fact, only 3 of Ohio’s returning defenders were among the top 15 in snaps last year. Everyone else played fewer than 300 snaps or was not with the program in 2024.
It doesn’t get much better for Ohio’s offense. While there is more continuity on this side of the ball, the Bobcats will have to replace its 2 best playmakers in running back Anthony Tyus III and wide receiver Coleman Owen, as well as their 2 best offensive linemen. Most of the pass-catchers behind Owen returned, but no one provided anywhere near the production that he did. The fate of this offense lies on the shoulder of Parker Navarro, who has playing experience, but led the MAC in interceptions and turnover-worthy plays last year.
Playing at home under the lights with a massive continuity advantage across the staff and roster, I’m expecting Rutgers to score early and often in this matchup. Therefore, I’m going to lay it with the Scarlet Knights in the first half at anything under 10 points for my final best bet of the Week 1 Thursday slate.
