Unlike the weather, the race for the College Football Playoff is starting to heat up as the calendar turns to November. Week 10 of the regular season will go a long way in the quest for one of the 12 coveted postseason spots, as it offers 3 ranked matchups in Vanderbilt vs. Texas, Oklahoma vs. Texas and Cincinnati vs. Utah. Meanwhile, as many as 13 other ranked teams will play unranked foes, 8 of them on the road and another – Georgia – at a neutral-site venue.
We experienced another 1-leg loss on last week’s Saturday parlay thanks to Toledo’s ineptitude on the road, but win or lose, we look forward to the week ahead. We’ve cashed 3 of these parlays this year at 4/1 or better, and adding a 4th to the resume this week is the goal. Here is my Saturday Week 10 college football parlay at +1304 odds courtesy of bet365. Let’s briefly analyze each leg, and then you can make your way over to our NCAAF picks and CFB best bets for the rest of the Week 10 slate.
Mississippi State ML (+165)
New Mexico ML (+165)
Hawaii ML (+100)
Week 10 Saturday CFB parlay odds: +1304
Mississippi State Bulldogs ML over Arkansas Razorbacks (+165)
This is a high-variance game in the SEC between Mississippi State and Arkansas. Both teams can put up points, while their respective defenses leave a lot to be desired. Given the perceived volatility in this matchup, I’m going to ignore the points and grab Mississippi State on the money line as the first leg of this parlay.
Yes, this is an awful situational spot for the Bulldogs, having lost at home in overtime to Texas after having a 17-point second-half lead last week. However, let’s not pretend like Arkansas enters this game in a much better position. The Hogs lost 2 ranked games in a row by just 3 points each before dropping another tough one at home to Auburn last week 33-24. Like Miss State, Arkansas had a double-digit lead before being outscored 23-3 in the second half.
When push comes to shove, I trust Mississippi State QB Blake Shapen more to play clean football. Shapen has one of the best turnover-worthy play rates in the conference according to PFF, while Arkansas QB Taylen Green leads not only the SEC, but the country with 17 turnover-worthy plays. I like Miss State even more knowing RB Fluff Bothwell was upgraded to probable on Wednesday’s SEC Injury Report.
New Mexico Lobos ML over UNLV Rebels (+165)
Keeping the high-variance underdog trend going, let’s add New Mexico as the 2nd leg of this 3-leg parlay. After losing back-to-back games at San Jose State and Boise State, the Lobos have won 2 straight over Nevada and Utah State. There isn’t anything particularly appealing about the Lobos here statistically, but rather situationally, as they catch the Rebels off their first loss of the season. While it might not seem like a huge deal on the surface, last week’s loss at Boise State completely ruins UNLV’s College Football Playoff hopes as an undefeated Group of 5 representative, and it puts the Rebels behind the 8-ball in the Mountain West title race.
Expecting an emotional let down, this is the perfect time for New Mexico to play UNLV. Don’t forget, UNLV has one of the worst defenses in the country – sitting 127th on the season in yards per play allowed. Since Week 5, UNLV is 132nd in points allowed per quality drive and 134th in opposing PPA per play. Moreover, the Rebels have been horrific against the run, which is an area New Mexico’s trio of running backs can exploit. It only helps that the Lobos are adequately battle-tested on the road this year.
Find our New Mexico vs UNLV prediction
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML over San Jose State Spartans (+100)
For our 3rd and final leg of the Week 10 Saturday college football parlay, we have, you guessed it, another small money line ‘dog! Coincidentally, we’re staying in the Mountain West with this pick and taking the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in what figures to be another high-scoring, high-variance game. This matchup consists of 2 of the top 3 quarterbacks in the conference when it comes to big-time throws, but San Jose State’s Walker Eget puts the ball into harm’s way more often than his 3 interceptions show. In fact, he’s 3rd in the Mountain West in turnover-worthy plays with 12. That’s not going to fly against Hawaii’s opportunistic defense.
The Rainbow Warriors are 15th in havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 5, and being slightly stronger in the front 7 than the secondary will put Eget under pressure more than San Jose State prefers – which is less than ideal for the Spartans. Seven of Eget’s 12 turnover-worthy plays have come when he faces pressure, and he completes fewer than 37% of his passes in those situations. Interestingly enough, Hawaii’s Michah Alejado has double the amount of big-time throws and less than half of the turnover-worthy plays that Eget does when facing pressure, as the Rainbow Warriors have been cruising offensively for the better part of the last month and a half.
Sitting 6th in PPA per play, top-12 in passing efficiency and havoc allowed, and top 40 in points per quality drive since Week 5, Hawaii’s offense may have more upside than oddsmakers give it credit for.
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