Like most weeks, Friday’s Week 10 slate doesn’t have the widest variety of games. However, there are a few interesting storylines in Friday’s trio of college football matchups, especially when you mix in some Halloween flare. Are the Rice Owls primed to trick the road-favorite Memphis Tigers, who just beat USF in an emotional comeback win to keep their AAC title hopes alive? Can the Tar Heels treat Bill Billichek to his first ACC win? Will the Sam Houston State Bearkats break their winless spell? We will find out come Friday night!
All tricks and treats aside, here is my favorite bet on Friday’s college football card. After back-to-back losses, we’re looking to get back in the win column and push our record to 7-4 on these weekday CFB best bets.
Friday Week 10 CFB best bet: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -16.5 (-110)
Laying double digits in these types of games is unsettling, but Sam Houston State just hasn’t been able to figure it out on either side of the ball. Whether on offense or defense, the Bearkats are 125th or worse in yards per play and third-down conversion rate this year, struggling mightily to move the ball and stop opposing teams from marching down the field. Moreover, the Bearkats are 127th in red-zone trips and second-to-last nationally in red-zone scoring rate. On the other side of the ball, they have surrendered points on 33 of 36 opposing red-zone trips.
Louisiana Tech hasn’t been great offensively, but against this defense, I expect the Bulldogs to find the end zone enough to cover this number. They shouldn’t need as many points as you’d think considering they have a formidable defense that sits 8th in PPA per play and 14th in havoc generated outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks. Don’t let LA Tech’s 2 most recent losses cloud your judgement here. Those games were against the 2 highest-scoring offenses in the league, and Sam Houston State is nowhere near that. In fact, the Bearkats have scored just 78 points in their 4 conference games. Their most recent road game was a 10-point outing at New Mexico State, a defense that yields almost a touchdown more per game than Tech against CUSA opponents. I have this projected closer to 19 points, so I’m laying it here in what figures to be an ugly game for Sam Houston State.
After you lock in this best bet, make sure to check out the rest of our NCAAF predictions on over 30 of Week 10’s biggest matchups, including Sam Houston State vs Louisiana Tech!
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