Week 10 College Football Predictions: NCAAF Best Bets for Saturday, November 1

The first 9 weeks of the college football season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, after a Week 9 slate that featured upsets, bad beats and compelling finishes, this week’s action features a ton of important matchups across multiple conferences across both the Power 4 and Group of 5 levels. We have over 12 glorious hours of football in store for us on Saturday, and there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had.

With the 10th week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. We got back on track in the column a week ago, but it’s still been a difficult season full of bad beats and disappointing results. We’re due for a bit of positive regression this week, so let’s take a look at my trio of CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.

CFB best bet: Kansas State Wildcats +7.5 vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas State +7.

One of the marquee games in the Big 12 on Saturday comes in the Little Apple, where the Kansas State Wildcats will host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a spot that could be extremely tricky for a Texas Tech team that has had its struggles on the road of late. After all, Joey McGuire’s team has already lost outright to Arizona State on the road as a favorite of just over a touchdown, and the Red Raiders will be making another quarterback change heading into this game following the loss of Will Hammond for the remainder of the season. Yes, starting quarterback Behren Morton is back under center, but it remains to be seen if he’s fully healthy — and he also hasn’t played all that well in conference play when he has been healthy this season.

Morton will be going up against a Kansas State defense that hasn’t been anything special from a season-long perspective, but the Wildcats might have turned a corner of late, having just held Kansas’ explosive offense to just over 3 yards per play a week ago. On the other side of the ball, it’s been a trying season for Chris Klieman’s team on offense, but there have been glimpses of hope in recent weeks as the Wildcats have seemed to find their footing in Big 12 play. Avery Johnson struggled mightily in September, but he now has 12 total touchdowns to just 1 interception over the last month and he should be able to throw the ball a bit against a Texas Tech secondary that is the weakness of this defense, as we saw against the Sun Devils a few weeks ago.

There is proof of concept for how to attack this Red Raiders unit, and I expect Klieman and his staff to refer to the Arizona State game and look to get Jayce Brown (577 yards, 4 touchdowns) the ball early and often in this one. While I have questions about Kansas State’s ability to stay in the fight if it gets down big early on, I’ll still trust in the spot and this coaching staff to keep this game within one score on Saturday.

Lock in our expert’s Texas Tech vs Kansas State predictions

CFB best bet: Nebraska Cornhuskers +7 vs USC Trojans (-110)

Odds take from game preview published on October 30. Nebraska team total over 26.5 is also playable to 27.5

It’s a game that is flying under the radar given the brands involved in this game, but Saturday’s matchup between USC and Nebraska is a de-facto College Football Playoff elimination game for both teams. The Trojans certainly have the much stronger resume to this point and they certainly look like the better side between these teams. However, there is something to be said for the fact that Lincoln Riley and this coaching staff have struggled mightily over the last two seasons when leaving the West Coast.

Earlier this season, we saw USC lose to Illinois as a road favorite of nearly a touchdown in Champaign, and that’s been par for the course with recent history. In fact, the Trojans have yet to cover the spread as a road favorite in the eastern or central time zone since joining the Big Ten. That certainly raises some alarm bells in my head when breaking down this matchup, especially since the clear advantages that USC should have in this game on the ground could be negated a bit by the fact that the Trojans will be without their top 2 running backs on Saturday. The Trojans’ passing offense is one of the best in the nation, but the Nebraska secondary is actually the strength of its defense, with the Cornhuskers sitting inside the top 20 in passing success rate allowed and EPA per pass (CFB-Graphs). We can fully expect USC to score in this game, but that might not be enough to win by margin.

While I have no real questions about the USC offense, the Trojans’ defense is another story. Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has done a solid job with revamping this unit, but USC is still a team that can be had in the trenches — with the Trojans sitting at 117th in rushing success rate allowed and 85th in Early Downs EPA. That should be music to the ears of the Nebraska offense, with the Cornhuskers sitting inside the top 20 in rushing success rate and 24th in quality drives created. Nebraska has struggled against tougher competition this season, but USC’s defense has allowed plenty of possible scoring drives (76th in quality drives allowed), so there should be opportunities for Dylan Raiola and company to cash in on scoring opportunities. Ultimately, I have to take the full touchdown with the home ‘dog.

Get our experts full USC vs Nebraska prediction

CFB best bet: California Bears +6.5 vs Virginia Cavaliers (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +4.5.

From a situational perspective, this has all the makings of a tough spot for a Virginia team that has not exactly been convincing in its recent victories, while Cal has the chance to get back on track following a loss in double-overtime at Virginia Tech. Few teams across the country this college football season have run as well as Virginia, and Tony Elliot’s team should have some significant regression coming before this regular season is over. Yes, Virginia is 7-1 on the year and currently sits near the top of the ACC standings, but the last few weeks have yielded some pretty misleading results for the Cavaliers.

For starters, Virginia knocked off Florida State in overtime in a game that could’ve gone either way back on September 26. The Cavaliers then took down Louisville the next week in overtime, a game in which Virginia was +3 in the turnover battle. Fast forward to October 18 and the Cavaliers defeated Washington State at home by 2 points on a safety late in the fourth quarter (while also finishing +2 in turnovers). Most recently Virginia was once again +2 in turnovers in a 1-point victory in overtime against North Carolina a week ago, despite the fact that the Cavaliers were outgained by nearly 100 yards and averaged just 3.8 yards per play against a poor Tar Heels defense. It’s safe to say that Virginia can’t keep this up for much longer, and a trip out west is a great time to fade this team that’s been dancing through the raindrops for weeks.

The matchup against California is one that could presents some challenges for the Virginia offense, as the Bears are a top 40 defense in success rate allowed, points per quality drive, early downs EPA and 3rd and 4th down success rate. On the other side of the ball, true freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been up-and-down of late, but he is more than capable of seeing plenty of success against a Virginia defense that 95th in early downs EPA allowed and 109th in points per quality drive allowed. This has all the makings of a contest that should come down to the wire on the West Coast, and it’s only natural that my inclination is to back the underdog in this spot.