College football fans will be treated to another action-packed day of football on Saturday of Week 11. We will have 3 ranked matchups to enjoy, starting with BYU and Texas Tech right off the bat at noon ET. The other two will be played in the mid-afternoon window when Texas A&M travels to Missouri and Oregon travels to Iowa. Furthermore, 3 of the top 5 teams in the country will play on the road as favorites, while Alabama aims to remain unblemished in SEC play and Notre Dame hopes to strengthen its resume with a blowout win over a 1-loss Navy team.
Like every Saturday, I’m looking to cash in on a parlay consisting of some of my favorite bets of the day. Last week, we were so close to cashing our 3-leg underdog parlay, but the Rainbow Warriors didn’t get the message out on the island and hence didn’t uphold their end of the bargain. So it goes, another 1-leg loss, but we’re not going to hang our heads. Rather, we’re going to find a winner this week. Here’s my Week 11 Saturday college football parlay, odds courtesy of bet365. Don’t forget to check out all of our NCAAF predictions for the rest of the Week 11 action.
Maryland ML (+120)
Texas A&M vs Missouri Under 48.5 (-110)
Florida State ML (+100)
CFB Week 11 Saturday parlay odds: +740
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Maryland Terrapins ML over Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+120)
I’m going to keep the underdog money line theme going into this week’s parlay, starting with the Maryland Terrapins at Rutgers. I understand the Scarlet Knights will play on their home field here, but even when accounting for Rutgers’ home field advantage, I still make Maryland a slight road favorite in this matchup. Much of that has to do with the Terps defense. Maryland is top 50 in scoring and yards per play allowed this year, and has been above-average against the pass in the last 4 games despite a run of games against very solid college quarterbacks.
Rutgers, on the other hand, has no redeeming qualities on the defensive end. It’s almost impossible for me to lay points with this team because of it. For reference, the Scarlet Knights are outside the top 110 in scoring, total defense, yards per play and third-down conversion rate on the season as a whole. It’s even worse in their recent run of games, as they are 120th or worse in PPA per play, points allowed per quality drive, and havoc generated outside of garbage time.
Rutgers has a very good offense, but could the Knights be running out of gas? This will be their 5th straight game after 3 of their previous 4 were on the road. Now, they welcome a Maryland team that was just embarrassed by Indiana at home coming out of a bye week. The Terps need this game to make a realistic run at bowl eligibility; with a much better defense and a bit more stamina, they should get it done here.
Check out our Maryland vs Rutgers prediction
Texas A&M Aggies vs Missouri Tigers Under 48.5 (-110)
Texas A&M hasn’t seen many elite defenses this year. You could argue Auburn is the only above-average defense the Aggies have played to this point, and that was the only game they were held under 30 points – though they suffered from 2 missed field goals and a near-red-zone interception in the 2nd half of that game. Missouri offers a similar defensive intensity that Auburn does, as the Tigers held Alabama to 27 points and Vanderbilt to 17 points over the course of the last 3 games.
These teams don’t play fast. Texas A&M currently sits 108th in seconds per play, and the Aggies have started to play more deliberately over their last 3 games. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 72nd in seconds per play and will likely play a bit slower with a true freshman quarterback under center. All things considered, while I think Missouri will struggle to score enough to cover, the Tigers should have the ability to limit Texas A&M’s scoring just enough to keep this game under the total.
Read our full Texas A&M vs Missouri prediction, including picks on side and total
Florida State Seminoles ML over Clemson Tigers (+100)
Oh how the mighty have fallen in the ACC. A game that was supposed to be in the national spotlight will be relegated to the ACC Network instead of ABC, ESPN, or even ESPN 2, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had. Don’t get me wrong, neither of these teams are very good in the grand scheme of things, but at least Florida State has flashed a higher ceiling than Clemson – and against better competition. The Seminoles came out of their bye and took care of business last week, and the same absolutely cannot be said for the Tigers – no matter what the post-game win expectancy suggests.
With just 3 wins on the year, Clemson has fallen down the ranks right before our eyes, and will need to win 2 of its final 3 FBS games to have a shot at bowl eligibility. However, is this a team that really wants to fight for that? The Tigers had national title aspirations this year with how experienced their roster looked on paper, now they’re being yelled at by Dabo Swinney on the sidelines in the midst of giving up a 40-burger to Duke at home – where Clemson used to be impossible to beat before this season (1-4 SU at home).
Motivation-wise, it should be all Florida State here. After a 2-win season, you best believe the ‘Noles want to make a bowl and fully cleanse themselves of that embarrassment. Look for Tommy Castellanos to have one of those games in an FSU win at Clemson.
You don’t want to miss this Florida State vs Clemson prediction
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