The first 10 weeks of the college football season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, after a Week 10 slate that featured upsets, bad beats and compelling finishes, this week’s action features a ton of important matchups across multiple conferences across both the Power 4 and Group of 5 levels. We have over 12 glorious hours of football in store for us on Saturday, and there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had.
With the 11th week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. We suffered another bad beat in the column a week ago with Cal losing a cover against Virginia by way of a late pick-six, and that’s unfortunately been par for the course this season. It’s been a difficult campaign full of crushing beats and disappointing results, but that means things can only go up this week! We’re due for a bit of positive regression, so let’s take a look at my trio of CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.
CFB best bet: Iowa Hawkeyes +7 vs Oregon Ducks (-120)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Iowa +6.5
Oregon has been cruising for most of the season, but the Ducks have certainly struggled when stepping up in class in a couple of spots. In fact, while they have a couple of impressive wins on paper, one could argue that a win at Penn State is not nearly as impressive for Dan Lanning’s group as it looked a month ago. The Ducks have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but most of it is still fairly young, and I’m still of the belief that next year is when Oregon will stake itself as a true national title contender. Throw in the fact that Dante Moore has been pretty pedestrian in recent weeks and the fact that the forecast is calling for wet conditions on Saturday, and we have all the ingredients for a game that might be a bit too close for comfort for this Oregon team.
Not only has Kinnick Stadium been a house of horrors for highly-ranked opponents over the past couple of decades, this Iowa defense is going to be one of the best units that Oregon will have faced all season, as the Hawkeyes rank inside the top 10 in quality drive rate, EPA per dropback and 3rd and 4th down success rate (CFB-Graphs). Earlier this season, Phil Parker’s defense held the Indiana offense to just over 300 yards of offense, so even though the Ducks have an excellent group of skill position talent, there is a proof of concept for this Iowa defense to at least offer some resistance against a pretty inexperienced quarterback that is playing in an extremely hostile environment.
On the other side of the ball, Iowa appears to have finally turned the corner offensively after putting up a combined 103 points over its last 3 contests. With an excellent ground game to make things easier on veteran quarterback Mark Gronowski, this unit should scratch across at least a couple of touchdowns against a Ducks defense that can be vulnerable against the run. As long as the Hawkeyes can establish a bit of success on the ground and avoid any costly turnovers, this should be another Big Ten game decided by one possession in Iowa City.
Lock in our expert’s Oregon vs Iowa predictions
CFB best bet: Boston College Eagles +11.5 vs SMU Mustangs (-110)
Odds taken from game preview published on November 4. Playable to +10.5.
From a situational perspective, this is about as good of a spot as you can find on the Week 11 slate — and I intend to take advantage of it. On one side, Boston College comes into this game in a fine run of form against the number following a pair of covers in back-to-back contests against Louisville and Notre Dame. The Eagles are in the midst of a very disappointing season, having only won a single game to this point, but this is still a well-coached unit that has battled the best teams on its schedule tooth and nail in recent weeks. Bill O’Brien should have his team prepared to play in what is the annual “Red Bandana” game for Boston College, a spot where the Eagles traditionally have pulled off some upsets in the recent past.
Conversely, SMU is in a brutal letdown spot after knocking off Miami at home in what was clearly the biggest win of its season to this point. Now, head coach Rhett Lashlee’s side will have to travel all the way to the northeast for a bizarre matchup against a new conference foe in Boston College, a team they couldn’t possibly care all that much about, all while staring at a massive home game against Louisville on deck that could have massive implications in the ACC title picture.
It shouldn’t be a surprise if the Mustangs come out very flat in a spot in which they could still be a bit hungover from last week’s win season-altering victory against Miami that was a massive bounce-back performance following a loss to Wake Forest the week prior. With that in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Boston College kept this game within one score and really put a scare into the visitors, so I’ll certainly take the points with the Eagles at home in a matchup that should be closer than what the market expects.
Don’t miss our full SMU vs Boston College prediction
CFB best bet: TCU Horned Frogs -5.5 over Iowa State Cyclones (-110)
Odds taken from game preview published on November 4. Playable to TCU -7
This is a pretty good situational spot for TCU on paper, as Sonny Dykes’ team is coming off a much-needed bye week to rest and get a bit healthier following a difficult stretch of 7 consecutive games, most of which came in Big 12 play. Now, you’re getting one of the best offensive minds in the Big 12 in a must-win spot against a pretty beleaguered Iowa State team that has dropped 4 straight games following a 5-0 start to the season. Add in the fact that the Cyclones are pretty banged-up, and I don’t exactly have much confidence in Iowa State to keep this one within a score on the road.
Regression has clearly hit Matt Campbell’s team, particularly on defense, where the Cyclones are now sitting at 70th in success rate allowed and 81st in 3rd and 4th down success rate per CFB-Graphs. That doesn’t bode well against a TCU offense that is a top 20 unit in 3rd and 4th down success rate, quality drives created and points per drive. Josh Hoover is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and he’s been plying mistake-free football over the last few weeks for the Horned Frogs. Hoover shouldn’t have to score 40 points to cover this number, especially with the TCU defense grading out very well against the run (13th in EPA per rush, 18th in rushing success rate allowed) and with Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht currently in the midst of his worst run of form of the season. Ultimately, I’ll lay the points with the better team at home in this Big 12 clash.
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