Week 11 Line Movements, Odds, and Betting Report

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Andrew Ortenberg

NFL · 3 years ago

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I'm an editor here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

By the time the games kickoff, NFL lines often look considerably different from where they opened. Sportsbooks frequently adjust lines throughout the week both to balance the action, and to adjust to sharp money coming in from respected bettors. Today, we’ll be taking a look at a few of the more significant Week 11 NFL line movements from the games and what they mean.

OAK @ ARI

Perhaps the biggest line movement of the week has come out in the desert, where the Cardinals are favored over the Raiders. The Cardinals opened as around 3.5 to 4 point favorites, and that number has quickly shot up. It’s now 5.5 most places but as high as 6 in some shops, and it’s not hard to see why. The Raiders have been inept on both sides of the ball recently, and have shown little fight, especially on the road. The team has more or less given up on the season, while the Cardinals are finally starting to show signs of progress. Arizona’s offense has slowly been getting better ever since making the change from Mike McCoy to Byron Leftwich at coordinator, and could have some success here against this pathetic Raiders defense. It’s not hard to see why sharps are on the Cardinals.

DAL @ ATL

The total on this game has moved considerably from its opening at 47.5 all the way out to 49.5 where it currently sits. Both defenses have been riddled with injuries, and both offenses have some matchup advantages. This Dallas defense can be beat deep, and Matt Ryan has one of the best deep balls in the league. This Falcons offense also does much better at home, and the game will be played within the confines of a dome. Dallas’ offense finally showed some life during their upset victory last week, and could have some success against an Atlanta defense that has been one of the worst in the league. Making things even better for the over, Dallas is dealing with a slew of injuries to their defensive line, and four starters have already been ruled out. They will also be without Sean Lee yet again, the linebacker who is the heart and soul of the defense. It’s a recipe for a lot of points, and 47.5 was too low for this to open at.

TEN @ IND

Speaking of games which have seen a lot of over money coming in, so too has the Titans and Colts game. This opened at 48 and has now climbed to 50.5. The Titans’ season long offensive metrics were artificially deflated by the multiple games that Blaine Gabbert started at quarterback, and by Marcus Mariota playing at well less than 100 percent. That perception of the Titans offense kept this total lower than it should’ve been, as Mariota is fully healthy now and looking great. He finally looks comfortable in new offensive coordinator Matt LeFluer’s scheme, which was always going to take a while. The Colts’ offense has looked great no matter who they’ve played, they hung 29 on Jacksonville last week, but their defense has been a train-wreck. The defense has been a disaster statistically even though they’ve played an incredibly easy schedule of opposing offenses. This one has shootout written all over it, and it’s no surprise that the total has ticked up.

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