The weekend is just about here, which means we are that much closer to another Saturday loaded with college football action. At this point in the year, the postseason picture has started to take shape, offering compelling and emotional matchups across the entire college football landscape. Usually we have 3 or 4 games to watch on Fridays, most of them being low-level power conference teams or Group of 5 matchups. This week, we only have 2 Friday games, although they involve some pretty notable programs.
To kick things off at 7:30pm ET Friday, Clemson travels to Louisville catching about a field goal on the point spread after beating Florida State at home last week while the Cardinals lost as 3-touchdown favorites against Cal. The nightcap will be out west in Eugene when the Oregon Ducks host the Minnesota Golden Gophers on the heels of a wet, sloppy 2-point win at Iowa last week.
Like every week, I have a best bet for the Friday college football card, and this time around, I hope to get back into the win column and improve on my 7-5 weekday best bet record after UCF put forth a disappointing second half against Houston last week. Here is my favorite play of the night on the gridiron. After you lock this one in, be sure to check out the rest of our NCAAF predictions for the Week 12 college football slate.
CFB Best Bet: Clemson Tigers vs. Louisville Cardinals Under 51.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
We see it often – teams looking ahead to a future opponent just to stub their toe and take a loss to a team they have no business losing to. That’s exactly what happened to Louisville last week against Cal, as the Cardinals were outgained by the Golden Bears in a 29-26 overtime loss at home. QB Miller Moss couldn’t get going despite a solid effort from RB Keyjuan Brown on the ground, completing just 20 of 38 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. In fact, Moss has struggled more than his statline suggests. Despite 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this season, he has 9 big-time throws to just 15 turnover-worthy plays per PFF. All but 2 of those turnover-worthy plays have come Week 5 and later, once the level of competition ramped up.
I’m expecting this to be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers suggest with a total north of 50. It’s hard to trust either of these offenses given injuries to key pieces like Clemson WR Bryant Wesco Jr. and Louisville RB Isaac Brown. Neither quarterback inspires much confidence either, though Cade Klubik is certainly more trustworthy than Moss from a decision-making and ball-security perspective.
The defenses should be the stars of the game on Friday night. Clemson has the build to limit Louisville’s rushing attack, putting way more pressure on Moss than Louisville wants – as the Cardinals haven’t been good in passing situations recently. Conversely, Clemson can’t run the ball, which feeds right into Louisville defensive strength – its pass defense.
Both of these stop-units have been above-average in the red-zone, which should help suppress scoring – especially when you consider how mediocre these offenses have been when crossing the opposing 20-yard line. For reference, Clemson and Louisville are both outside the top 60 in red-zone touchdown rate and outside the top 100 in red-zone trips. When you combine those offensive struggles with a slow pace of play, which is a characteristic of both offenses, the under jumps off the page as the best bet on Friday’s college football card.
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