Week 12 College Football Predictions: NCAAF Best Bets for Saturday, November 15

The first 11 weeks of the college football season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, after a Week 11 slate that featured upsets, bad beats and compelling finishes, this week’s action features a ton of important matchups across multiple conferences across both the Power 4 and Group of 5 levels. We have over 12 glorious hours of football in store for us on Saturday, and there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had.

With the 12th week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. We suffered another bad beat in the column a week ago with TCU losing a cover against Iowa State by way of multiple second-half red zone turnovers and a punt return touchdown allowed, and that’s unfortunately been par for the course this season. It’s been a difficult campaign full of crushing beats and disappointing results, but that means things can only go up this week! We’re due for a bit of positive regression, so let’s take a look at my trio of CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.

CFB best bet: TCU Horned Frogs +6.5 vs BYU Cougars (-115)

Odds taken from game preview published on November 12. Playable to +3.5. TCU team total over 23.5 also playable to 24. 

While TCU let me down in this column by surrendering a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against Iowa State a week ago, this was still a box score that dramatically favored the Horned Frogs. After all, TCU outgained the Cyclones by nearly 200 yards and finished with nearly double the amount of first downs. If it wasn’t for 3 turnovers and allowing a punt return touchdown midway through the fourth quarter, the Horned Frogs likely win and cover the number at home a week ago.

With last weeks performance in mind, it’s not a shock that TCU’s metrics suggest that the Horned Frogs are better than their record, and I have no problem getting back on the horse with Josh Hoover and an offense that clearly looked to be much healthier following the bye week. This is still a top 20 unit in 3rd and 4th down success rate, quality drives created and points per drive, so points should be available to TCU throughout this contest on Saturday.

Regardless of how the offense looks, Hoover shouldn’t have to score 40 points to cover this number, especially with the TCU defense grading out very well against the run (13th in EPA per rush, 26th in rushing success rate allowed) and with BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier currently in the midst of his worst run of form of the season following a terrible showing against Texas Tech. There’s no doubt that while BYU is certainly a good team — one that has outperformed preseason expectations by a significant margin — the Cougars are pretty fortunate to only have one loss at this point, as it’s gone through what has been a gauntlet of a Big 12 schedule thus far.

As the season winds down, you have to wonder if BYU is running out of gas a bit as the season winds down, and the Cougars are now down to 70th in passing success rate on offense, to go along with metrics outside the top 50 in a number of key areas, including points per drive. The TCU defense has been playing like a top 25 unit of late, so as long as Hoover plays mistake-free football, the Horned Frogs should keep this one close and are very live to potentially win outright in Provo.

Lock in our expert’s TCU vs BYU predictions

CFB best bet: Washington Huskies -16.5 over Purdue Boilermakers (-110)

Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to 17.

This is a good spot to back a Washington team that just had its worst performance of the season a week ago against Wisconsin, a game in which the Huskies only scored 10 points and lost as a double-digit favorite. However, Jedd Fisch’s team did outgain Wisconsin and was minus-2 in turnovers in a game that was played in pretty adverse weather conditions. that result tracks with how the campaign has gone for Washington, as the Huskies have one of most extreme discrepancies in home and road performances of any team in the country this season. While the Huskies haven’t been great on the road by any means this season, this is still one of the best home field advantages in the sport and it should claim another victim on Saturday.

From a matchup perspective, Purdue’s defense could be in trouble in this one. After all, the Boilermakers are 122nd in success rate allowed and the Washington offense is one of the top 10 units in the sport (5th in success rate, 7th in quality drive rate, 6th in third down success rate). The Huskies have been a machine at home, and I’m of the belief that Demond Williams Jr, Jonah Coleman and company should be able to generate success against an Purdue defense that is 130th in quality drive rate allowed and 103rd in points per drive allowed.

On the other side of the ball, while Washington’s defense isn’t elite by any means, the Purdue offense has been extremely poor in recent weeks, so I don’t think the Boilermakers will be able to keep up with a Huskies team that has as good of an offense as almost any team across the nation when playing at home. Ultimately, I’ll lean on the hosts to win and cover this number in what should be a blowout in Seattle.

Don’t miss our full Purdue vs Washington prediction

CFB best bet: Washington State Cougars -7.5 over Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-105)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Washington State -8. 

From a situational perspective, this is about as good of a spot as you can find on the Week 12 slate — and I intend to take advantage of it. On one side, Washington State comes into this game in a fine run of form since turning to Zevi Eckhaus at quarterback. After all, the Cougars are 4-1 against the spread since Eckhaus became the full-time starter, including impressive performances against Ole Miss and Virginia, where they lost both games by a combined 5 points and easily covered the number in the process. Washington State is coming off a bye week and should be rested and prepared for a favorable matchup against a weary opponent.

Part of what makes this spot so advantageous for Washington State is where Louisiana Tech is at on the other side. This is a brutal travel spot for the Bulldogs, who just played in Delaware a week ago and lost on a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer to fall out of Conference USA title contention. Now, they’ll have to travel all the way out to the Pacific Northwest for a nonconference game against an opponent that needs this week like blood in order to keep its hopes of qualifying for a bowl game alive. Adding insult to injury is that Louisiana Tech lost its starting quarterback for the season in that loss last week, so there’s a chance that this number has actually not adjusted enough to his backup. All things considered, I’ll back the Cougars to win convincingly at home.