Week 13 College Football Parlay: CFB Parlay Picks for Saturday, November 22

The penultimate weekend of the college football regular season has arrived, and it’s a very bittersweet feeling. On one hand, the season is almost over. On the other hand, bowl season and the College Football Playoff are right around the corner. Who is going to rise to the occasion and fulfill their postseason dreams? Who is going to crumble under pressure and fail to meet their goals? We will soon find out.

With the end of the regular season nearing, I’m back with a CFB Week 13 parlay at a juicy +1176 price courtesy of BetMGM. Let’s discuss each piece of this 3-leg parlay before you head over to the rest of our NCAAF predictions for tips and picks on over 30 games on Saturday, and don’t forget about our CFB best bets, either! 

North Carolina ML (+200)

New Mexico ML (-165)

Florida ML (+165)

CFB Week 13 Saturday parlay odds: +1176

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North Carolina Tar Heels ML over Duke Blue Devils (+200)

Going into last week’s game against Virginia, Duke had an outside shot at making the ACC title game. However, that pipedream obviously went up in smoke when the Blue Devils were effectively blown out on their home field by the Cavaliers 34-17. The score makes it look better than it was, as Duke scored 14 points in the fourth quarter when the game was all but decided. Virginia outgained Duke 540 to 255 and converted 12 of 19 third downs. 

The Blue Devils have now lost 3 of their last 4 and need a win to earn bowl eligibility. However, they are about to hit the road for a very, very short trip to play at their arch-rival — the North Carolina Tar Heels. Everyone knows how dysfunctional the Heels have been since Bill Belichick arrived in Chapel Hill, but UNC has actually been sound defensively of late. Since its 38-10 loss to Clemson, UNC is 2-3 SU but has held 4 of those 5 opponents to 21 points or fewer. In fact, the Heels held the very Virginia team that dominated Duke to 17 points and 259 total yards. 

For what it’s worth, North Carolina is 28th in yards per play allowed against FBS opponents this year — and more recently the Tar Heels defense is 34th in standard downs PPA and 13th in PPA per pass allowed since Week 8. With the much better defense, playing against a mistake-prone team in a letdown spot, I like the Tar Heels to win outright over their rival.

New Mexico Lobos ML over Air Force Falcons (-165)

Aside from the fact that New Mexico is technically still in the hunt to make the Mountain West Championship, the storyline of this game is that Air Force QB Liam Szarka broke his arm last week against UConn and is out for the season. Air Force’s offense really took off with him under center, as he had multiple games with over 200 passing yards and more than 100 rushing yards — accounting for 22 total touchdowns on the year. Moreover, his big-time throw rate (7.8%) leads the Mountain West among qualified quarterbacks, and his 10 big-time throws puts him sixth in the conference despite having a fraction of the attempts of the guys surrounding him. 

I question the upside of Air Force’s offense without Szarka on the field, especially against a New Mexico defense that is fourth in PPA per rush since Week 8 and ranks among the top 12 defenses in the country when it comes to limiting explosive runs. On the other side, Air Force’s offense has certainly improved recently, but can that hold up in this spot? The Falcons played in a highly-competitive game against fellow service academy Army on November 1 before traveling to San Jose and then all the way out to Connecticut in 3 consecutive weeks. I like New Mexico to get it done, but I missed the best number at the beginning of the week — so let’s pivot from the spread to the money line for the sake of this parlay. 

Florida Gators ML over Tennessee Volunteers (+165)

There aren’t many statistical reasons to bet Florida over the last 2 weeks of the regular season. This is a 3-7 team with no head coach, yet the Gators have not given up. Their performance at Kentucky was confusing, but they fought to the very end against playoff-bound Ole Miss last week — which is encouraging ahead of their return home to the Swamp to play rival Tennessee. Florida has played extremely well at home this year, crushing Texas, beating Mississippi State and losing to USF by 2 — in addition to losing by Georgia on a neutral by just 4. 

Florida is loaded with injuries, yet this line is hovering closer to a field goal than a touchdown. Interestingly enough, not on the injury report is defensive lineman and future first-round NFL Draft pick Caleb Banks. His potential return to the field would only help Florida’s front 7, and any increased amount of pressure on Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar is a good thing for the Gators — as Aguilar becomes far more turnover-prone against aggressive defenses. I’ll take the home underdog in a rivalry game under the lights against a team like Tennessee with nothing to play for, sitting in an awkward spot outside of the CFP and having already earned bowl eligibility.