It’s the penultimate Friday of the college football regular season, as bowl season and the College Football Playoff are right around the corner. While there will be an awesome Friday slate next week, there aren’t many options this week. Only 2 FBS matchups will take place, starting with Florida State vs. NC State at 8:00pm ET on ESPN before a consequential Mountain West matchup between Hawaii and UNLV kicks off in the desert at 10:30pm ET.
After last week’s winner the under in Clemson vs. Louisville, we’re now 8-5 on these weekday best bets, and I’m ready to add a 9th winner this week despite the limited Week 13 Friday card. Let’s get into the analysis, and be sure to find the rest of our NCAAF predictions on over 30 games on the Week 13 menu.
CFB Friday best bet: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +3 over UNLV Rebels (-115)
The Rainbow Warriors are already 2 wins better than last year and find themselves in the mix to play for a Mountain West title when they head to Las Vegas on Friday. At 4-2 in conference, Hawaii is 1 of the 5 teams tied in 2nd place conference behind San Diego State. To reach the title game, the Rainbow Warriors will have to win out to give themselves the best chance, which is the exact same situation UNLV is in – also 1 of the 5 teams tied for 2nd in Mountain West. This has all the makings for a great late-season bout between 2 of the better offenses at the Group of Five level, and I’m loving that Hawaii has been given a field goal this one.
Hawaii is no stranger to being in the underdog role, as each of its 4 conference wins came when catching points. Of their 6 conference games, the Rainbow Warriors have covered in 5 of them. Meanwhile, UNLV has failed to cover in 4 of its last 5 overall. As a favorite against a conference foe, the Rebels are just 2-3 ATS, and they lost to the 2 best Mountain West opponents they played in New Mexico and Boise.
UNLV can’t stop anyone. The Rebels are outside the top 110 scoring, as well as outside the top 130 in total defense and yards per play this season. More recently, they sit outside the top 130 in PPA per play since Week 8, and they have been especially bad on standard downs. In the red zone, UNLV lets its opponents cross the goal line more often than not, which is something Hawaii should be able to take advantage of throughout this contest – as the Rainbow Warriors have the 3rd-best red zone scoring offense in the country when you consider both touchdowns and field goals. In fact, they’ve scored points on 34 of 35 red zone trips.
Hawaii certainly has the defensive edge here. The Rainbow Warriors aren’t defensive stalwarts by any means, but they hover right around average in scoring and total defense, and they’re exponentially better than UNLV on standard downs. Moreover, they’re top-30 in points allowed per quality drive over the last 5 weeks, in addition to 31st in PPA per pass allowed, putting them in position to limit UNLV’s offensive production.
This Hawaii squad has out-performed expectations all season, and I’m expecting that trend to continue on Friday night against one of the worst defenses in the country.
Now out our CFB best bets for Week 13
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