Week 13 College Football Predictions: NCAAF Best Bets for Saturday, November 22

The first 12 weeks of the college football season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, after a Week 12 slate that featured upsets, bad beats and compelling finishes, this week’s action features a ton of important matchups across multiple conferences across both the Power 4 and Group of 5 levels. We have over 12 glorious hours of football in store for us on Saturday, and there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had.

With the 13th week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this slate with my weekly best bets column. We got back on track with a 2-1 week last week, so let’s keep that momentum going this week! We’re still due for a bit of positive regression in the column, so let’s take a look at my trio of CFB best bets for Saturday. You can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.

CFB best bet: UTSA Roadrunners ML over East Carolina Pirates (+120)

Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +105.

This is one of the better spots of the Week 13 slate, and I intend to take advantage of it. On one side, East Carolina is in the midst of a very good run of form and the Pirates are coming off one of their biggest wins in years against Memphis in a game that thrust them back into the AAC title race. East Carolina’s offense has steadily improved as the season has gone on, as quarterback Katin Houser has now thrown for nearly 3,000 yards while tossing 15 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. However, this is a brutal road trip for a Pirates team that has struggled away from home against quality competition this season. Given the enormity of last week’s win, don’t be surprised if East Carolina comes out a bit slow in what could be a flat spot for Blake Harrell’s team.

As for the home side, UTSA has been an up-and-down bunch all season long — but the Roadrunners are likely a bit better than their record given how a few of their results look in hindsight. Historically, Jeff Traylor has been an excellent head coach against the spread in November and he is a whopping 24-0 at home in conference play with this UTSA program. Not only has Traylor been one of the best coaches in the nation in these spots, but his team also certainly looks like it has turned a corner offensively in recent weeks — with Owen McCown and company rolling through the likes of Tulane and Charlotte at home.

Where UTSA has gotten into trouble has been against tough and fast teams on the road (USF and North Texas come to mind), but that’s not the situation that they’ll see in this one. The Roadrunners pass defense is still an issue but they should be able to slow down the East Carolina ground attack and keep the Pirates behind the chains at points in this contest. And because they play at an extremely fast pace, East Carolina has not shown that it can consistently grind out close wins, particularly away from home. Given the fact that I expect this one to be a close contest from start to finish, there’s some inherent value on the home underdog on Saturday.

Lock in our expert’s East Carolina vs UTSA predictions

CFB best bet: USC Trojans +10.5 vs Oregon Ducks (-120)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to USC +10.

While Oregon has a couple of impressive wins in conference play — including a massive walk-off victory against Iowa on the road a few weeks ago — one could argue that a few of those wins haven’t aged all that well compared to how they were perceived at the time. This Ducks team has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but most of it is still fairly young, so it’s reasonable to question if they’ll win by margin in a game of this magnitude against a quality opponent. It’s also worth noting that Dan Lanning’s team could be without a couple of key starters on offense this week, most notably freshman wide receiver Dakorien Moore. With that in mind, even though Dante Moore was lights out a week ago, this one still has all the ingredients for a game that might be a bit too close for comfort for the Oregon faithful at Autzen Stadium.

It’s no secret that USC has had major issues with going on the road in the Lincoln Riley era, but those problems have predominantly shown themselves when the Trojans have traversed multiple time zones to play an unfamiliar opponent. USC’s problems have also largely come as a favorite, which makes this matchup a much different situation for the Trojans. It all starts on offense for Riley’s group, and he’s fortunate to have arguably the best wide receiver duo in the country in Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. Together, this elite duo should see success against an excellent Oregon secondary, seeing as the only time the Ducks have struggled against the pass this season came against Indiana, who had a similarly strong duo of wide receivers on the outside.

Not only is the Trojans passing offense one of the best in the nation (5th in passing success rate, 4th in EPA per pass), but USC is also still a run-first operation — which bodes well against an Oregon defense that is still a pretty middling unit against the run by Power 4 standards. All things considered, I expect both sides to score in a game that could feel like an old PAC-12 shootout. However, the underdog is my preferred choice in this pivotal West Coast showdown.

Don’t miss our full USC vs Oregon prediction

CFB best bet: SMU Mustangs -2.5 over Louisville Cardinals (-110)

Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to SMU -3. 

This is a terrific situational spot for SM, as Rhett Lashlee’s team is coming off a bye and is in a position where it can still qualify for the ACC title game if it wins out and gets some help. Despite getting off to a pretty slow start, the Mustangs have quietly won 5 of their last 6 games and has been especially solid at home, where they’ll catch a Louisville team that is entering this game following back-to-back crushing losses against California and Clemson by a combined 4 points. The Cardinals are now way out of the ACC title-game picture after looking like the team to beat in the conference just a few weeks ago. With that in mind, a trip to Texas to face a well-rested SMU team is not exactly an easy task for Jeff Brohm and company.

Even setting aside the spot, it’s not as if the Louisville offense has been lighting the world on fire in recent weeks. Miller Moss has struggled under center and the Cardinals’ typically reliable ground attack has stalled out with running back Isaac Brown out of the lineup. That doesn’t bode well against an SMU defensive front that has tons of talent and has been excellent against the run to this point in the season (21st in rushing success rate allowed, 10th in EPA per rush allowed, 17th in Early Downs EPA). Louisville is not a team that is built to rally from behind, so if Kevin Jennings and the strong SMU rushing attack can get on the board early against a shaky Cardinals rush defense, this is a spot where things could unravel for a Louisville team that is in free-fall at the moment.

Get our expert’s full Louisville vs SMU prediction