The final weekend of the college football regular season kicks off on Black Friday with a very appealing slate of games that will span from noon ET until about midnight. Among the 4 games kicking off at noon is the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State, which feeds into an afternoon window headlined by a rivalry matchup between Georgia and Georgia Tech known as “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate.” Finally, the night slate will see a massive Lonestar State matchup between the undefeated Texas A&M Aggies and their renewed rival Texas Longhorns in Austin kick off at 7:30 pm ET on ABC.
Ahead of a generous Black Friday college football slate, I have a few best bets to lock in while you dig into your Thanksgiving leftovers. Here are my favorite picks of Friday’s football slate; be sure to check out all of our NCAAF predictions for the rest of the final regular season and the ensuing postseason.
CFB Best Bet: Georgia Bulldogs -14 over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-108)
Georgia Tech’s defense has been its Achilles heel all year, and the Yellow Jackets proved that once again last week when they allowed the Pitt Panthers to accumulate over 400 yards and score 35 offensive points after just being held to 219 yards and 15 points at home against Notre Dame the week prior. The Yellow Jackets sit outside the top 115 in a majority of defensive metrics, and those blemishes figure to rear their ugly heads again on Black Friday against one of the best offenses in the country in the Georgia Bulldogs – a top-8 team when it comes to PPA per play and points scored per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line since the end of October. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are elite on standard downs of late (3rd nationally), which should provide Georgia with plenty of manageable third downs given how bad Tech is defensively in those situations. For reference, the Yellow Jackets are 134th in standard downs PPA allowed over the last 5 weeks.
Georgia struggled to stop the run last year, but that hasn’t been an issue for the ‘Dawgs this year. In fact, Georgia boasts one of the best run defenses in the country, sitting top-11 in total rush yards allowed, rushing yards per game, and yards per rush. That should position the Bulldogs nicely against the Yellow Jackets, who have an excellent rushing attack with QB Haynes King, RB Jamal Haynes, and RB Malachi Hosley. UGA also excels at taking away explosive plays, which is another strength of Tech’s offense.
There is a case to be made that this is a letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Rivalry aside, GT was in the driver seat to play for a conference title, and while those aspirations are not completely dead, they are out of Tech’s hands and rely completely on Virginia Tech beating Virginia and Cal beating SMU. Possible? Sure. Probable? Unlikely. Georgia should be able to exploit that. Knowing Kirby Smart, he probably wants to make this a decisive result after last year’s game went into 8 overtimes. Not to mention, this was supposed to be a home game for Georgia Tech, but its athletic department agreed to play this game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in downtown Atlanta – which is of way more benefit to UGA than it is GT. It’s the ‘Dawgs all the way for me here.
Get our full Georgia vs. Georgia Tech prediction, including picks on the side and total
CFB Best Bet: Texas A&M Aggies ML over Texas Longhorns (-135)
Back when these teams were Big 12 members, Texas A&M and Texas played every year, but it wasn’t very often that both teams were ranked. Now SEC members, this is the second time in as many years that the Aggies and Longhorns will meet while mutually ranked in the CFP Top 25. A win here for TAMU will solidify a perfect regular season and position the Aggies for an SEC Championship, while a win for Texas and some help across the country might – though unlikely – put the Longhorns in the playoff discussion despite losing 3 games. I don’t envision that happening, but it’s worth mentioning as a possibility I suppose. Who knows what the committee will do.
Texas’ defense has been advertised as one of the best in the country, but I haven’t seen that on the field recently. The Longhorns have allowed each of their last 4 opponents to score at least 31 points, and now they have to line up opposite one of the most efficient and electric offenses in the country, albeit at home. The Aggies are top-15 in scoring, total, offense, and yards per play this season, in addition to top-35 in red-zone offense. More recently, they are top-30 in PPA per play, and they don’t allow much havoc – which is a good thing against Texas’ pass rush.
Speaking of pass rushes, Texas A&M has one of the best in the country. The Aggies are 2nd nationally in sacks and tackles for loss, which is certainly going to test what’s been a mediocre Texas offensive line that is below average in sacks surrendered, tackles for loss allowed, stuff rate allowed, and line yards. Those offensive line issues probably play into Texas’ poor performance on standard downs and in its run game, which means the Longhorns may face multiple third-and-long situations. That simply is not the way to beat this Texas A&M defense, as it has been one of the best third-down units in the country all year.
The Longhorns sit outside the top 80 in points scored per quality drive over the last 5 weeks, and it doesn’t get any better in the red zone. In fact, they are outside the top 70 in red-zone scoring this year, which could spell catastrophe if Texas’ defense isn’t able to stop Texas A&M’s offense. I don’t trust this Texas bunch, while – outside of one fluky half against South Carolina – has proven to be a trustworthy team all season. Give me the Aggies.
We have picks on the side and total in our Texas A&M vs. Texas prediction
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