The first 13 weeks of the college football season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, after a Week 13 slate that featured upsets, bad beats and compelling finishes, Rivalry Week across the college football world features a ton of important matchups across multiple conferences at both the Power 4 and Group of 5 levels. We have over 12 glorious hours of football in store for us on Saturday, and there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had.
With the 13th week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this slate with my weekly best bets column. We stayed hot with a 2-1 card last week, so let’s keep that momentum going this week! We’re still due for a bit of positive regression in the column, so let’s take a look at my trio of CFB best bets for Saturday. You can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.
CFB best bet: Washington Huskies +7.5 vs Oregon Ducks (-120)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Washington +7.
While the Ducks were very impressive in a double-digit victory over USC a week ago, there were still plenty of opportunities for the Trojans to cover that game, and the margin of victory was probably a bit inflated by the end. After all, USC was missing its two best players on defense and it still took multiple turnovers and a punt return for a touchdown for the Ducks to get to the window. It’s important to remember that Dan Lanning’s team has been extremely pretty banged up for the last few weeks and will likely be without a number of key players on offense this week, including freshman wide receiver Dakorien Moore and multiple starters on the offensive line. With that in mind, even though Dante Moore was lights out a week ago, it’s hard to see Oregon’s offense having the same level of success on the road in what is sure to be an extremely hostile environment.
As for the hosts, Washington has been a team that I love backing in Seattle, as the Huskies have one of the most extreme discrepancies in home and road performances of any team in the country this season. Jedd Fisch’s group is rarely an underdog at home, and this is a spot where Husky Stadium could claim another victim. Washington has been able to work through its injuries and get a bit healthier coming off a few blowout victories, as star running back Jonah Coleman and wide receiver Denzel Boston should be back in the lineup on Saturday. That makes this offense extremely dangerous, especially with Demond Williams playing some of his best football of the season of late. Most importantly, the offensive line should be healthy for the first time in well over a month for a Washington team that can score with anybody at home when healthy. Let’s look for another thriller between these teams in Seattle.
Don’t miss our full Oregon vs Washington prediction
CFB best bet: Kentucky Wildcats vs Louisville Cardinals Under 47.5 (-110)
Odds taken from game preview published on November 25. Playable to Under 46.5
This is a game that features a ton of uncertainty due to injuries. On one side, the Kentucky injury report figures to be pretty lengthy this week, as the Wildcats have dealt with plenty of attrition on both sides of the ball, particularly in the defensive backfield. And while the injuries have certainly added up on defense — and it showed in last week’s blowout loss to Vanderbilt — the Wildcats are also dealing with injuries within their wide receiving corps and the tight end room heading into this game. That doesn’t bode well against a Louisville defense that is one of the best units in the ACC and has largely held up its end of the bargain in recent weeks, even as the Cardinals offense has struggled mightily during this demoralizing 3-game losing streak.
On the topic of the Louisville offense, Jeff Brohm’s unit has gone downhill fast in recent weeks. It all started with the injury to running back Issac Brown, who is the engine behind the success of the Louisville offense this season. Not only did the Cardinals lose at home to California as a massive favorite, they followed that up with a brutal 1-point home loss Clemson in a game that Louisville had every chance to win. Last week, the Cardinals hit rock bottom by starting a backup quarterback in place for the injured Miller Moss and finished with just 6 points in a drubbing at the hands of a red-hot SMU team on the road.
While this week would ordinarily be a good spot to back Louisville at home following that embarrassing loss, its hard to gauge just where Brohm and his team are at mentally, especially since the Cardinals will likely be without Moss, along with their top 3 running backs and star wideout Chris Bell. Even against a Kentucky defense that will be without a number of key contributors this week, it’s hard to see Louisville rack up many points in this one. With that in mind, the under is the only way I can look on Saturday.
Get our expert’s full Kentucky vs Louisville prediction
CFB best bet: UTSA Roadrunners -6.5 over Army Black Knights (-120)
Odds taken from game preview published on November 24. Playable UTSA -7.
Last week, I was all over UTSA in what was one of the best spots of the Week 13 slate, and I’m going back to the well with the Roadrunners to win and cover at home once again. Army is in the midst of a poor run of form against the spread and Jeff Monken’s team is coming off a brutal loss to Tulsa at home, in which Army blew a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter and lost on a field goal in the final seconds. Now, they’ll have to embark on a brutal road trip to take on a UTSA team that has yet to lose a game at home since joining the American Conference. Last year’s Army team was one of the best in recent program history, and even that Black Knights team had trouble putting UTSA away in West Point. This time around, I expect the Roadrunners to exact a bit of revenge in what should be another raucous atmosphere at the Alamodome.
UTSA has been rounding into form in recent weeks, and that certainly carried over into a beatdown of what was a red-hot East Carolina team a week ago. Historically, Jeff Traylor has been an excellent head coach against the spread in November and his team has clearly turned a corner offensively, with Owen McCown and company putting up an average of nearly 45 points per game over their last 3 games at the Alamodome. On the other side, the Roadrunners won’t face much of a passing attack from an Army team that is very one dimensional with its heavy rush rate this season. With that in mind, the UTSA rush defense (21st in quality drive rate allowed) should keep the Black Knights behind the chains throughout this contest, leading to a decisive victory.
Lock in our expert’s Army vs UTSA predictions
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