Sam Avellone
An action-packed Saturday of college football is upon us. While we won’t have the same marquee matchups throughout the day that we did last week, there are still plenty of games to be excited about. After going through the card, I’ve circled a few spots I like most and am parlaying them together for a chance at a big payout. Let’s get into the analysis for each leg, and don’t forget to find our NCAA predictions for all of our opinions on the Week 2 college football card.
Baylor ML (+110)
UTSA Roadrunners ML (-175)
Florida Gators Team Total over 37.5 (-110)
NCAAF Week 2 Saturday parlay odds: +530
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Baylor Bears ML over SMU Mustangs (+110)
The intrastate, non-conference matchup between Baylor and SMU should be electric, as the Bears look for their 14th consecutive victory over the Mustang football program in their first meeting since 2016. While that means nothing for this particular matchup, I can’t imagine Dave Aranda and the Bears appreciate being underdogs in a matchup Baylor football has controlled over the last 30 years.
I understand why the Bears are ‘dogs on the road in Dallas, but I like this team’s ceiling more than SMU’s, especially offensively despite being unable to cash in on a couple early drives against Auburn. Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson is a bit more decisive and consistent than SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, and Robertson’s pass catchers like Josh Cameron and Michael Trigg are a bit more proven than what SMU has this season. In the run game, Baylor struggled to get things going against Auburn, but the Tigers defensive front is better than SMU’s – so look for a better performance from Baylor running back Bryson Washington this week.
SMU hung 42 points on East Texas A&M from the FCS level, but I came away from that game questioning the offensive upside of the Mustangs moving forward. Half of their points came from defensive or special teams scores, they turned the ball over 3 times, and managed just 4.2 yards per rush attempt. That doesn’t exactly instill confidence when they step up in class on Saturday against a hungry Baylor team that lost at home last week.
Check out our full Baylor vs SMU prediction for this Big 12-ACC showdown
UTSA Roadrunners ML over Texas State Bobcats (-175)
In his first year as a full-time starter, UTSA quarterback Owen McCown did not lose a single game at home in 2024. In fact, the Roadrunners have lost just 2 games in the Alamodome since the start of the 2021 season, which was coach Jeff Traylor’s second year at UTSA. Expect the home win-streak to continue in the 2025 opener on Saturday. Not only is it the home opener, which is always a get-up spot for a team and its fanbase, but this is a sneaky revenge spot as well after Texas State absolutely embarrassed the Roadrunners last year in San Marcos, 49-10.
After finishing top 12 nationally in scoring and total offense, the Bobcats look vastly different this season compared to last. There was a mass exodus in the offseason, as Texas State lost its offensive coordinator, starting quarterback, and numerous key contributors. In fact, the Bobcats return just 36% of its production from last season, which isn’t ideal against what should be a hungry UTSA squad.
The Roadrunners have one of the best and most experienced offenses in the Group of 5, especially when they play at home. Look for them to lean into their offensive strengths and pick apart a Texas State secondary with just a couple returning pieces that played more than 250 snaps last season.
Florida Gators Team Total over 37.5 vs USF Bulls (-110)
If you read my USF vs Florida prediction earlier this week, you know I like points in this game, and you would have beaten a line move past a key number of 55. Despite the uptick on the total, I still maintain my stance of expecting a high-scoring game, specifically from the Gators. Sure, USF holding Boise State to 7 points looks great in the box score, but the Bulls were fortunate to hold the Broncos under double digits. All 3 of the fumbles the Bulls recovered were inside of Boise State’s scoring zone (inside the 40), and 2 of them were even in the red zone.
Florida consistently scores with ease against non-power conference opponents, which doesn’t bode well for a USF defense that surrendered at least 42 points to Alabama, Miami, and Tulane last year. The common denominator in those games was USF’s poor run defense, and I question the Bulls against the run again this year, especially in this matchup. The talented Florida running back duo of Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson should find plenty of running lanes behind an offensive line that has a noticeable size advantage in the trenches. Look for them to rip off multiple explosive runs and lead the Gators to a sizzling offensive performance.
