Caleb Wilfinger
It was so great to have college football back in full, and Week 1 certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. How will Week 2 deliver an encore? We’re just a few days away from finding out.
With the chaos of Week 1 in the rearview mirror and the second week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into the Week 2 slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. With Saturday’s massive slate nearly upon us, there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had. Let’s take a look at my CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.
CFB best bet: Duke Blue Devils +3.5 vs Illinois Fighting Illini (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Duke +3
One of the more intriguing games across the college football landscape in Week 2 comes in Durham, North Carolina, where we’ll see a Big Ten vs ACC clash between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Duke Blue Devils. Both of these teams have aspirations of improving on successful campaigns in 2024, and while I’m not as bullish on Duke as some others in the college football world, I’m considerably lower than the market on Illinois and I’m looking to fade them in a difficult road spot on Saturday.
Illinois enters this season as one of the most hyped teams of the offseason, and while I can understand some of the reasoning for it, the general consensus on this team is not one that I agree with in the slightest. For starters, this was an offense that was extremely fortunate in the turnover department a season ago, as quarterback Luke Altmyer was able to consistently dance through the raindrops and avoid interceptions, despite having a high turnover-worthy play rate. There’s also something to be said for the fact that the Illini lost both Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin from last year’s team, and Altmyer could experience some real struggles in the passing game without a pair of NFL receivers to provide that security blanket for him.
Defensively, the Illini bring back plenty of production, but this was an overrated unit that struggled mightily against the higher-level competition in the Big Ten (123rd in rushing success rate allowed, 98th in passing success rate allowed) last season. While Duke’s offense is not an elite unit by any means, the Blue Devils have a high-level talent in Darian Mensah at quarterback, a player that has the potential to be one of the best in the nation at his position in short order. The Blue Devils are also at home hosting an opponent ranked in the AP Top 25, which has been a spot where they have won and/or covered the number as an underdog in recent seasons. Look for Manny Diaz’s group to pull the outright upset, so I’ll gladly take the points with the home ‘dog on Saturday.
Don’t miss our full Illinois vs Duke predictions
CFB Best bet: Baylor Bears +3.5 vs SMU Mustangs (-120)
Odds taken from game preview at time of publishing. Playable to Baylor +3 or take Baylor team total over 30.5.
Baylor was a popular choice to win the Big 12 in the offseason, and while those dreams are very much still alive for Dave Aranda’s squad, the national perception of the Bears certainly took a hit following a 38-24 defeat at the hands of Auburn to open the season. On the other side, SMU dispatched of East Texas A&M in its first game, but the Mustangs were far from convincing in that performance. With that in mind, I’m certainly partial to the visitors in this in-state matchup.
The primary thing that gave the Baylor defense fits in its season opener was Auburn’s unique ground attack. The Tigers can beat you in a number of different ways on the ground, and there wasn’t much film to be had for Derrick Nix’s unit with Jackson Arnold now in the fold at quarterback. As a result, the Tigers held a 72% Success Rate on the ground, with the bulk of the damage coming from Arnold at the quarterback spot. While SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has some mobility, I don’t expect the Mustangs to be nearly as effective on the ground in this game. After all, the Mustangs struggled to get any explosiveness in that department against a poor FCS opponent in Week 1, registering just under 4.5 yards per carry. To make matters worse, it was not a clean operation for SMU at all, as the offense finished with 3 turnovers and was poor on 3rd downs.
What’s even more concerning for SMU was its performance on defense, as the Mustangs allowed over 350 yards of offense and nearly 5 yards per play despite forcing a trio of turnovers. With that in mind, the Mustangs should struggle in what will be a major step-up in class against Sawyer Robinson and a Baylor offense that is very capable of scoring quickly and wearing down opponents. The Bears already got to face an SEC unit a week ago and moved the ball pretty well in that game, so this task should not be a step-up in class in the slightest. Ultimately, this projects to be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of points, so I’ll grab the points with the underdog in this Texas showdown.
Get our expert’s full Baylor vs SMU predictions
CFB Best bet: Oklahoma Sooners -4.5 over Michigan Wolverines (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5
Both of these teams have a lot to prove in this matchup, as the Sooners are coming off a dismal season in their first year in the SEC, while the Wolverines struggled mightily on offense in 2024 following a season in which they were crowned National Champions. One of these teams will take a massive step forward on the road to redemption in 2025, and I’m of the belief that the hosts will emerge victorious on Saturday.
It’s easy to buy the upside with Michigan as an underdog in this spot, as the insertion of 5-star true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is a move that instantly raises the ceiling of this unit a ton. However, as I mentioned in my Big Ten season preview, Underwood is still very unproven and I think there will be some clear growing pains this season, especially considering the caliber of defense he’ll be facing in this one.
Given the fact that Underwood is making his first ever road start in an extremely difficult environment, Michigan should look to lean on its ground game early and often. The problem for the Wolverines is they will likely struggle to move the ball against a ferocious Oklahoma defense that ranks 3rd in rushing success rate allowed and 13th in points per drive (CFB-Graphs). It still remains to be seen if the Wolverines passing game can take a step forward this season, and I don’t foresee this as being the game where Underwood and these unproven wide receivers break out.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan is replacing some massive pieces on defense, and those losses really showed in the season opener against New Mexico, as the Lobos were surprisingly able to keep that game close, easily covering the massive spread in the Big House. In steps Oklahoma’s new-look offense, with quarterback John Mateer bringing along offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State. The Sooners kept things very vanilla in last week’s win over Illinois State, and I’d expect Oklahoma to have a few tricks up its sleeve in this pivotal early-season matchup. Ultimately, my handicap is a bit more about fading Michigan in this spot, but I’m still confident in Mateer and the Sooners defense to rise to the challenge and win by margin at home.
