Caleb Wilfinger
It is so great to have college football back in full, and the first few weeks of the season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. What will Week 3 have in store for us? We’re just a few days away from finding out.
With the chaos of Week 2 in the rearview mirror and the third week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into the Week 3 slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. Last weekend was a very profitable slate, as I went 3-1 on best bets in Week 2. Let’s keep that momentum going!
With Saturday’s massive slate nearly upon us, there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had. Let’s take a look at my CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.
CFB best bet: Georgia Bulldogs -3.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (-110)
Odds taken from game preview at time of publishing. Playable to Georgia -4.
While this series has been dominated by Georgia in the Kirby Smart era, there are some justifiable concerns to be had for the Bulldogs on the surface. After all, the Georgia offense has looked fairly mediocre over the first two games of the campaign. New quarterback Gunner Stockton is not pushing the ball downfield all that much, and the offensive line is still a question mark given all of the pieces they are rotating at different positions. However, Georgia playing it very safe and keeping things vanilla against inferior opponents in nonconference play is nothing new for Smart, and I have a feeling that this Bulldogs staff will have a much stronger offensive gameplan in store against an untested Tennessee defense.
As for the Georgia defense, it’s abundantly clear that the Bulldogs aren’t anywhere near as dominant as what we’ve seen from them in seasons past. However, this is a unit that still ranks inside the top 20 in most of the meaningful advanced metrics, including success rate allowed, net points per drive, EPA margin and third and 4th down success rate allowed. Conversely, the Tennessee offense has historically struggled when facing this Georgia defense in the Smart era, and while new quarterback Joe Aguilar has looked very solid thus far, this is an entirely new test for the former Appalachian State gunslinger that has shown a propensity to turn the ball over in his 3 seasons as a starter.
Ultimately, I fully expect the Bulldogs to bounce back after a pretty mediocre showing against Austin Peay in a game that shouldn’t matter all that much considering the obvious look-ahead spot at hand. Georgia is still the top dog in this conference and the dominant team in this series, and I’ll make Tennessee prove it to me before I change my tune.
Lock in our expert’s Georgia vs Tennessee predictions for Saturday
CFB best bet: Duke Blue Devils ML over Tulane Green Wave (+115)
Odds taken from game preview at time of publishing. Playable to Duke ML (-110).
A week ago, I was all over Duke to cover the number as short home underdogs against an Illinois team that I was looking to fade at the earliest opportunity. And while the Blue Devils ended up falling short in that game, the box score and eventual final score was extremely misleading if you actually watched the proceedings. For starters, the Blue Devils lost the turnover battle by a whopping 6-0 margin, with multiple of those miscues directly leading to points for Illinois and/or taking potential points off the board for Duke. It was also a disaster from a situational perspective, as Duke had special teams miscues and/or untimely bad penalties on multiple occasions that kept drives alive for the Illini while simultaneously halting any momentum the Blue Devils generated.
Despite all of this, Darian Mensah and the Duke offense still outgained the Illini while registering a 49% success rate (85th percentile) and averaging nearly 7 yards per play. On the other side of the ball, Manny Diaz’s defense racked up 14 tackles for loss and completely stymied the Illinois ground game. Call me crazy, but I would bet Duke again in last week’s matchup and I’m going back to the well with the Blue Devils in this one.
Tulane was another team I was looking to fade early in the season, and while the Green Wave rolled over Northwestern in Week 1, much of that was due to a myriad of turnovers and poor play by the Wildcats in their first game with a new quarterback and offensive scheme. The Green Wave escaped with a win over South Alabama was nearly 2 touchdown favorites in Week 2, a game in which they were outgained and allowed 6.5 yards per play, but won the turnover battle and stopped a game-tying 2-point conversion attempt in the final minute to secure the victory. I don’t see things going nearly as smoothly for Jake Retzlaff and company this week, as this will be their toughest test yet against a Duke defense that is 17th in passing success rate allowed and 21st in net points per drive allowed (CFB-Graphs).
The Blue Devils offense is also due for some major positive regression on 3rd downs, to say nothing of the positive regression that is surely coming for Duke in the turnover department as well. In fact, Tulane has won the turnover battle by a 7-1 margin over the first 2 weeks while Duke has lost the battle by a 7-0 margin in that same span. Eventually that will correct itself a bit, and it starts on Saturday with a win over Tulane in a revenge game for Mensah against his former team. Duke is the better overall team and I firmly believe the Blue Devils should be favored in this matchup.
Get our expert’s Duke vs Tulane predictions
CFB best bet: Northwestern Wildcats +28.5 vs Oregon Ducks (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 28.
A week ago, I laid four touchdowns with Oregon against Oklahoma State, and that will likely be one of the easiest winners I’ll have all season long considering the Ducks put up 69 points on the Cowboys in a dominant victory from start to finish. It’s been nearly a picture-perfect start to the campaign for Dante Moore and company to this point. In fact, there have been more than half a dozen Ducks players that have registered touchdowns over the first 2 weeks in a pair of total beatdowns against historically proud programs. Now, Dan Lanning’s team heads to Chicago for a date with Northwestern on Lake Michigan in what could be a very sleepy spot for the Ducks with a rivalry game against Oregon State on deck, followed by a massive matchup against Penn State in Happy Valley.
Given the fact that this is a clear sandwich spot for Oregon and kickoff is set for 9 a.m. on the west coast, its hard to see the Ducks offense setting the world on fire in this one. Yes, it’s going to be difficult for Northwestern’s defense to make plays in the open field against the likes of Dakorien Moore or Kenyon Sadiq, but the Wildcats defense has been really solid against the run to this point and has been good at getting off the field on 3rd downs. It might only take a couple of stops for the hosts to keep this one respectable in a game where the Ducks could be sleepwalking a bit early on.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s defense has been virtually flawless to this point, but this is an instance where the Northwestern offensive game plan is one that should focus on establishing the ground game and shortening the game. Look for Preston Stone and the Wildcats to chew up plenty of clock and try and slow this game down to a crawl in order to avoid a bludgeoning at the hands of a much more talented Oregon team. It’s not for the faint of heart, but let’s back the Wildcats to keep this game within 4 touchdowns at home.
Find out our full Oregon vs Northwestern predictions
