Week 4 College Football Parlay: CFB Parlay Picks for Saturday, September 20 at +495 odds

If it wasn’t for next week’s massive college football slate, I would say Week 4 has the best menu of games to watch in the month of September. Despite being so early in the season, we have multiple conference matchups that carry significant weight in their respective league standings such as Texas Tech vs Utah, Auburn vs Oklahoma, and Illinois vs Indiana. There are even a couple non-conference matchups in which the underdogs’ College Football Playoff hopes would likely be squashed with a loss, including Tulane vs Ole Miss and Florida vs Miami. 

After combing through the Week 4 college football card, I’ve honed in on a few games that I feel more confident in than others. Like every week, I’m combining those picks together into a Saturday CFB parlay and looking for a big winner at +495 odds.  We are due, as we’ve missed 2 out of our last 3 Saturday parlays by just 1 leg. Let’s jump into the picks, and make sure you find the rest of our NCAAF predictions for the entire Week 4 slate. 

Utah Utes ML (-156)

Clemson 1H Team Total over 17.5 (-102)

Ole Miss -11.5 (-120)

Week 4 Saturday CFB parlay odds: +495

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

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Utah Utes ML over Texas Tech Red Raiders (-156)

In a showdown between what might be the two best teams in the Big 12, Texas Tech hits the road for the first time this season to play the Utah Utes at Rich-Eccles Stadium. Both teams are a perfect 3-0, and while they have been impressive for different reasons, I’m siding with the home team on the money line in the first leg of our Saturday college football parlay. 

Although UCLA doesn’t seem to be very good this season, Utah has at least played a power conference opponent and has already been on the road twice. Meanwhile, Texas Tech hasn’t played anyone of significance. The Red Raiders have had 3 home games against an FCS team, Kent State, and Oregon State – 3 teams with just 2 combined wins between them. Despite the cupcake schedule thus far, the Red Raiders are outside the top 115 in penalties per game, which is likely to hinder them on the road in a game that has an oddly-early kick-off time. 

Needless to say, this is the first real test for both teams, but more so for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders front seven has been extremely strong to this point, though that figures to regress slightly against what could be the best offensive line in the country for Utah and a quarterback with elite escapability in Devon Dampier. I have this game power rated around a 4-point Utah win, but because this is a step-up in class for both sides and an awkward start time, I’m going to err on the side of caution and take the money line instead of the spread.

Clemson Tigers first half team total over 17.5 vs Syracuse Orange (-102)

Clemson’s season hangs in the balance, as the Tigers cannot afford another loss if they want to make another run to the College Football Playoff. Offensively, it has been a disaster for them to this point. The Tigers are outside the top 100 yards per game, PPA per play, and points per scoring opportunity through 3 weeks, but I expect a better performance this week at home for the Tigers given who they are playing.

Syracuse has been abysmal defensively this season, ranking 104th in yards per play and 113th in PPA per play allowed. The Orange surrendered nearly 500 yards to Tennessee in Week 1, and they didn’t look much better in their succeeding games against UConn and FCS Colgate, either. In fact, Syracuse allowed both of those teams to gain more than 400 yards and win the time-of-possession battle.

Given Clemson’s early season struggles and looming bye week following this game, expect an all-hands-on-deck type performance from the Tigers right out of the gate. They should be able to score early and often against this porous Syracuse defense playing in a true road game for the first time this year.

Find our CFB best bets for our most confident picks of the weekend

Ole Miss Rebels -11.5 over Tulane Green Wave (-120)

On the surface, this is a tough sandwich spot for the Ole Miss Rebels, as the Tulane Green Wave rolls into Oxford with an unblemished record that includes two wins over power conference opponents. However, neither of those opponents are as dynamic as the Rebels offensively, which figures to be an issue for a Tulane defense that has been extremely vulnerable in its two most recent games. In fact, the Green Wave surrendered more than 250 yards on just four second-half drives at South Alabama in Week 2 – which almost cost them the game –  and followed that performance by yielding 450 yards to Duke last week. Simply put, Tulane has no shot to win, much less cover against Ole Miss if it doesn’t tighten the ratchet straps on the defensive side of the ball – especially when you factor in the abundance of penalties for which Tulane has been called this season (108th in penalties per game). 

Ole Miss has not been great defensively itself, but the Rebels have also played two conference opponents already. At home against an AAC opponent, I expect the Rebels defensive front to capitalize on its talent advantage and limit a Tulane offense that has ridden the coattails of quarterback Jake Retzlaff all season. Look for Lane Kiffin to have his squad focused on this game, not looking ahead to LSU, as Kiffin knows just how tough Jon Sumrall and the Tulane program can be.