Week 4 College Football Predictions: NCAAF Best Bets for Saturday, September 20

It is so great to have college football back in full, and the first few weeks of the season have certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. What will Week 4 have in store for us? We’re just a few days away from finding out.

With the chaos of Week 3 in the rearview mirror and the fourth week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into the Week 4 slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. We’ve had a solid start to the season thus far, so let’s kick things into high gear with 4 best bets this week!

With Saturday’s massive slate nearly upon us, there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had. Let’s take a look at my CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.

CFB best bet: Utah Utes -2.5 over Texas Tech Red Raiders (-120)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Utah -3. 

Arguably the most important game of the day across the college football landscape comes in Salt Lake City, where we’ll see a battle for supremacy at the top of the Big 12. Texas Tech was the talk of the offseason in this conference due to the influx of money into the program, and the Red Raiders certainly look like one of the top contenders in the league thus far. Behren Morton is back for another season at quarterback, and he’s certainly looked sharp to this point, as he’s led an offense that has put up well over 150 points in 3 games while ranking inside the top 10 in success rate and Early Downs EPA (CFB-Graphs).

On the other side of the ball, the Texas Tech defense has been rock solid too (top 10 in success rate and Early Downs EPA), albeit with some explosive plays allowed that could be some cause for concern. Joey McGuire has to be pleased with where his team stands to this point and the national media has certainly taken notice. With that said, it’s hard to gauge just how ready this team is for a big time spot like this, particularly when 2 of their first 3 games came as 50+ point favorites against the likes of Arkansas Pine Bluff and Kent State.

At this point, we know what we’re getting from Morgan Scalley and the Utah defense, and it looks like the Utes are headed for another season in which their defense is a top 20 unit in the sport. However, I’d argue that it’s actually the offense that is the flagship unit of this team and gives Klye Whittingham’s group a much higher ceiling than what some may think. Utah’s offense was one that I was higher on than the market coming into the season, and the results have been even better than what I expected to this point. In fact, what’s been most impressive about the Utes has been their red zone efficiency, with 15 of their 16 red zone possessions resulting in touchdowns this season.

Utah’s offensive line might be the best unit in the nation and it’s certainly shown thus far, as Whittingham’s team is averaging 6 yards per rush while converting on 72% of its 3rd downs. Devon Dampier is emerging on a national level as one of the better quarterbacks in the sport, and his play to this point speaks for itself (73% completion, 8 touchdowns to zero interceptions, 66 rush yards per game). Texas Tech’s defensive front is one that has plenty of high-level talent, but the Red Raiders could be in for a rude awakening against Dampier and an offensive line that is projected to have 2 players taken in the first round of next year’s NFL Draft.

While they haven’t played a murderer’s row of opponents to this point, at least the Utes have played a pair of road games, with one of them coming in a difficult environment. Texas Tech hasn’t had to leave Lubbock and the Red Raiders have beaten up on vastly inferior competition through the first 3 weeks. It goes without saying that this will be a monumental step up in class for this group, one that I don’t think will bode well for the Red Raiders in one of the toughest places to play in college football. I’ll gladly lay the short number with the Utes in a massive spot at Rice-Eccles.

Lock in our expert’s Texas Tech vs Utah predictions for Saturday

CFB best bet: Indiana Hoosiers -4 over Illinois Fighting Illini (-110)

Odds taken from game preview at time of publishing. Playable to Indiana -5.5 or Indiana 1st half -3 (-120)  

This is a massive game in the Big Ten and it features a team that I am looking to back against a team I feel very comfortable fading. Earlier this season, I faded Illinois against Duke and I would still make that bet again given the circumstances around that game. After all, Illinois won the turnover battle 5-0, was gifted points by the Blue Devils on numerous occasions and was able to take advantage of special teams miscues and untimely penalties from Duke in the victory. The Illini were still outgained in that game, and Duke registered a 49% success rate (85th percentile) on an Illinois defense that is outside the top 100 in passing success rate and rate of quality drives allowed (CFB-Graphs).

In steps an Indiana offense that has been rolling of late, as the Hoosiers sit inside the top 5 in passing success rate and lead the nation in points per quality possession (all drives across the opponents 40-yard-line). Fernando Mendoza certainly looks like one of the better quarterbacks in the nation to this point, and the Hoosiers have plenty of skill position talent at their disposal against an Illini secondary that has certainly struggled in the lone game where they had to play a competent offense. The Indiana offensive line is also quite strong, and it should hold an edge in this game against an Illinois defensive front that has yet to face a unit of this caliber.

On the other side of the ball, I’m still not sold on Luke Altmyer and the Illinois passing attack. Despite the fact that the Illini receivers stepped up against Duke, that performance has not aged particularly well, seeing as we just saw Tulane make quick work of the Blue Devils’ defense, to the tune of nearly 7 yards per play. The Illini have also struggled with generating explosiveness on offense, particularly in the passing game (69th in passing explosiveness), and that factors in games against Western Michigan and a very poor Western Illinois team.

Indiana’s defense is an experienced veteran group and the Hoosiers will certainly be looking to generate turnovers against an Illinois side that has not thrown an interception or lost a fumble to this point in the season. Even if Illinois doesn’t turn the ball over, the Hoosiers are still 8th in success rate and rank inside the top 10 nationally in points per drive, rushing success rate allowed and EPA per pass. Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with Curt Cignetti at home, along with the better quarterback in this matchup. I’ll trust my instincts and lay the number with the Hoosiers.

Get our expert’s Illinois vs Indiana predictions

Nebraska Cornhuskers ML (+120) over Michigan Wolverines

Odds available at ESPN Bet at of publishing. Playable to Nebraska +100

Both of these teams have a lot to prove in this matchup, as the Cornhuskers hope to finally take a noticeable step forward in Matt Rhule’s third season as the head coach, while the Wolverines are coming off a mediocre campaign in 2024 and have already experienced some adversity on the road this season. One of these teams will take a massive step forward toward achieving its goals in 2025, and I’m of the belief that the hosts will emerge victorious on Saturday.

As I mentioned in my Big Ten preview over the summer, the insertion of 5-star true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is a move that instantly raises the ceiling of this Michigan offense quite a bit, and it makes me more bullish on the Wolverines from a long term perspective. However, as we saw against Oklahoma a few weeks ago, Underwood is still very unproven, and I think there will be some clear growing pains this season, especially considering the caliber of defense he’ll be facing in this game.

Underwood struggled mightily in his first ever road start in an extremely difficult environment, and Memorial Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the Big Ten, especially when factoring in the magnitude of this game. Michigan should look to lean on its ground game, and the Wolverines should see success against a middling Nebraska run defense. However, what the Cornhuskers do very well is defend the pass, get off the field on 3rd down and limit the scoring chances of their opponents (11th in net points per drive), all of which should limit Michigan’s success on offense in this one.

On the other side of the ball, the Michigan defense continues to remain solid against the run, even without the likes of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant in the middle of that defensive line. However, the Wolverines have seen a noticeable drop-off in their secondary to this point, and we saw John Mateer and Oklahoma exploit that a bit a few weeks ago. With Michigan sitting at 65th in passing success rate allowed and 82nd in 3rd down success rate (CFB-Graphs), there is a path for Dylan Raiola and a red-hot Nebraska passing attack (2nd in passing success rate, 10th in EPA per dropback) to succeed at home.

The Cornhuskers have one of the more underrated skill position groups in the Big Ten, and I’m of the belief that these wideouts can consistently win against a Wolverines secondary that has a lot to prove in this spot. Ultimately, this is a game that I had Nebraska winning prior to the start of the season, and nothing I’ve seen from either side has altered that notion to this point. Look for Rhule’s team to finally get over the hump against a ranked opponent on Saturday.

Read our full Michigan vs Nebraska predictions

CFB best bet: East Carolina Pirates +7.5 vs BYU Cougars (-110)

Odds taken from game preview at time of publishing. Playable to East Carolina +6.5

While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under-the-radar games that should have your attention is the Big 12 vs AAC contest in which the East Carolina Pirates will host the BYU Cougars in a compelling clash that should produce plenty of fireworks. BYU seems to have adapted to life without former quarterback Jake Retzlaff pretty well, as true freshman Bear Bachmeier has stepped in as the leader of this offense and played mistake-free football over the first 2 weeks of the season.

The Cougars have largely relied on their solid ground game (24th in EPA per rush) to lead the way against lesser competition, and Bachmeier hasn’t had to do all that much as a result. However, that will change this week in his first road start against an upstart opponent that is playing very well and boasts one of the more underrated environments in the sport. This is a massive step-up in class for the young quarterback, and I’m not sure how well he fares in this spot.

As for the hosts, the Pirates were a team that I was looking to back heading into the season, and I’ve largely been impressed with what they’ve accomplished thus far. NC State’s offense has proven to be quite good to this point, and East Carolina was able to limit CJ Bailey and the Wolfpack to just 24 points, with only 7 of those points coming in the second half. The defensive metrics for the Pirates aren’t staggering by any means, but it helps matters that BYU’s passing offense has been mediocre to this point (54th in passing success rate). The Cougars are also 98th in points per quality drive, which would give me real cause considering their first 2 games were against Portland State and Stanford.

On the other side of the ball, the Pirates will likely have the better quarterback in this game, as Katin Houser has impressed this season, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards through 3 games while tossing 5 touchdowns to just 1 interception. I expect this one to be a close contest from start to finish, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Pirates won outright. BYU has the slightly stronger statistical profile, but the Cougars have yet to be tested. With that in mind, this game should be decided by one possession either way.

Find out our full BYU vs East Carolina predictions