Sam Avellone
Week 5 of the college football season might end up being the best of the year when it’s all said and done. This slate is absolutely loaded with massive matchup – four of them being ranked – that will carry significant weight in the race for the College Football Playoff. Will Kirby Smart snap his skid against Alabama? How will the cross-country travel impact Oregon in a White Out under the lights against a Penn State team that was idle last week? Will Ole Miss exact revenge on LSU after the Rebels lost to the Tigers in Death Valley in walk-off fashion last season despite the Tigers not leading the game for a single second in regulation?
These are all questions we will have answers to by the time we go to bed on Saturday night. Clear your schedules, and get your chicken wings ready! In anticipation of the insanely-loaded Week 5 card, here are my favorite picks of the week combined together into a parlay with +1089 odds. Let’s have a week, and don’t forget to check out all of our NCAAF picks before you lock in your bets.
Toledo 1H -10.5 (-120)
Texas A&M -6.5 (-110)
Mississippi State ML (+240)
CFB Week 5 Saturday parlay odds: +1089
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Toledo Rockets 1H -10.5 over Akron Zips (-120)
My numbers show value on Toledo’s full-game number up to -22.5, but I’m targeting the first half instead, in an effort to protect myself from one of those Scott Van Pelt bad beats. The Rockets have been very good in the first half at home after losses, a trend which dates back a few years and has already surfaced once this season when they went into halftime with a 31-7 lead over Western Kentucky in Week 2. In fact, going back to 2022, coach Jason Candle’s teams have outscored their opponents 132-19 in first halves at home immediately following losses – which is exactly the situation Toledo finds itself in after a league loss at Western Michigan in Week 4.
Toledo may consider this a bit of a revenge spot, as the Zips managed to beat the Rockets in Akron in the final week of the regular season last year, 21-14. It was the first time Akron beat Toledo since 2013. I don’t see anything like that happening again this year considering Akron is 130th or worse in yards per play, PPA per play, and points per quality drive. Meanwhile, Toledo is 9th nationally in PPA per play allowed, along with top 40 marks in yards per play and points per quality drive allowed. Look for Akron to struggle out of the gate, and don’t be afraid to include this in your parlay up to -12.5.
Texas A&M Aggies -6.5 vs Auburn Tigers (-110)
This is a very tough spot for Auburn. Not only are the Tigers coming into this game immediately on the heels of an emotional SEC road game, but they have to play a Texas A&M squad that was idle last week. Playing at Kyle Field is already hard enough, but when you factor in the rest advantage for the Aggies, it’s difficult to expect a cover from Auburn, much less an outright win.
The Aggies should be able to continue moving the ball efficiently through the air against this Auburn defense, a unit that suffers from deficiencies in its secondary. For reference, the Auburn stop-unit is outside the top 90 in most advanced passing metrics, which is going to be an issue against the stellar Aggies receiver duo of Mario Craver and KC Concepcion.
On the other side of the field, the Aggies have struggled against the run. However, I trust Mike Elko and the defensive coaching staff to force Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold to beat them as a passer, which is not something he’s shown an ability to do on a consistent basis at the collegiate level – especially after taking 10 sacks last week at Oklahoma. Give me the Aggies at -6.5 or better.
Read our Auburn vs Texas A&M prediction, which includes picks on the side and total
Mississippi State Bulldogs ML over Tennessee Volunteers (+240)
I love this spot for State. Not only is it Tennessee’s first true road game of the season, but the Volunteers continue to be short-handed defensively due a slew of injuries to some of their best players, and it shows in the numbers. Coming into this week, the Volunteers are outside the top 65 in PPA per play allowed and have surrendered almost 5 points per opposing quality drive outside of garbage time.
Moreover, the ‘Vols have been especially mediocre on standard downs and against the pass, which is not a good omen against a Mississippi State offense led by coach Jeff Lebby and quarterback Blake Shapen. Under their leadership, the Bulldogs are top 20 in PPA per play, and they finish their quality drives with touchdowns more often than not – as evidenced by their 5.3 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yards line.
We have yet to see Joey Aguilar face much adversity outside of the Georgia game. However, this is a spot in which I expect him to put the ball into harm’s way. The Bulldogs are top 35 in multiple advanced passing metrics this season, including PPA per pass allowed and havoc generated by defensive backs, so don’t be surprised to see Aguilar throw another pick in his first SEC road game. If you read my Tennessee vs Mississippi State prediction, you’re already on the +8.5 with me, so let’s take a shot on a juicy money line with the home underdog and boost the odds of this parlay handsomely.
Check out our expert’s NCAAF best bets for the Week 5 slate
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