Sam Avellone
Friday of the Week 5 college football slate offers an interesting three-game card, starting with Florida State’s visit to Charlottesville, Virginia to play the Cavaliers at 7:00PM ET on ESPN. Kicking off about two hours later will be TCU’s conference opener in Tempe, Arizona against the Sun Devils, who started league play with a big win at Baylor last week. Finally, the night cap features a non-conference tilt between Houston and Oregon State, in which the Cougars are laying close to two touchdowns on the road in Corvallis.
How will Florida State look against real competition for the first time since its impressive Week 1 win over Alabama and the first time away from home? We will see on Friday. Meanwhile, the 9:00PM ET game between TCU and Arizona State carries significant weight in the Big 12 race. It will be interesting to see how well TCU shifts its focus to conference play after a big cross-town rivalry win over SMU last weekend.
There is one bet on Friday’s card that I’ve already made, and I’m going to share it with you here. Let’s get into the analysis, but don’t forget to find all of our NCAAF predictions and best bets for the entire Week 5 slate.
Friday CFB best bet: Florida State Seminoles vs Virginia Cavaliers over 59.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to 60.5.
Through four weeks, the Cavaliers average about 46.5 points per game, and the metrics confirm that’s no fluke. In fact, Virginia is top 20 in yards per play and PPA per play, in addition to tallying the third-most red zone trips in the nation and 15 red-zone touchdowns (tied-12th nationally). Florida State is certainly a step up in class from any defense Virginia has seen to his point, but outside of Week 1, the ‘Noles haven’t played anybody. In fact, you could argue the Cavaliers have the most cohesive and efficient offense the Seminoles will have played to this point, although I would argue Alabama is better than what it displayed in Tallahassee to open the season.
In any case, I like Virginia to put some points on the board here. The Cavaliers have 1 of the 35 most explosive passing offenses in the country outside of garbage time, which figures to match up nicely against the Seminoles – who are 126 nationally in pass explosiveness allowed despite how relatively easy this season has been for them thus far. Don’t be surprised if Florida State looks somewhat flat defensively in this spot. After all, this is somewhat of a triple-whammy from a situational perspective for the ‘Noles. Not only are they playing on the road on a short week, but it’s their first true road game, and it’s immediately ahead of their in-state rivalry matchup with Miami.
On the other side, FSU should be good for their fair share of points. The Seminoles have lit up the scoreboards all year, averaging a whopping 58 points per game. Again, the recent competition hasn’t been all that strong, but impressive nonetheless. Through four weeks of the regular season, Florida State is top 5 in yards per play and PPA, while scoring an average of almost 5.5 points on each of their 23 scoring opportunities. Those strong numbers should continue against a Virginia defense that sits 85th in PPA per play allowed, yields 4.5 points per quality drive, and has surrendered 7 touchdowns in 8 opposing red zone trips. Look for fireworks in this Friday night ACC showdown.
Read our Florida State vs Virginia prediction for a pick on the side
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