Caleb Wilfinger
It is so great to have college football back in full, and the first month of the season has certainly delivered plenty of excitement, upsets and games that came down to the wire. Now, all roads have led to a Week 5 slate that promises to be one of the best weeks of the campaign. Saturday’s action features a plethora of excellent games over 12 glorious hours of football, as we’ll see blockbuster matchups across multiple conferences until the early hours of Sunday morning.
With the fifth week of the college football season just around the corner, it’s time to get into this mammoth slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. We’ve had an up-and-down start to the season thus far, so let’s bounce back this week with a trio of best bets!
As Saturday’s massive slate nearly upon us, there are still a couple of good value bets on the board to be had. Let’s take a look at my CFB best bets for Saturday, while you can also find out all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action.
CFB best bet: Penn State Nittany Lions -3 over Oregon Ducks (-115)
Odds taken from game preview at time of publishing. Playable to Penn State -3.5 (-110).
The headline game of this loaded college football Week 5 slate on Saturday comes in the Big Ten, where the Penn State Nittany Lions are set to host the Oregon Ducks in a rematch of last season’s Big Ten title game. There are a ton of questions to be had for both teams in this matchup, as neither side has really been tested at all to this point. The winner will likely have the inside track to an appearance in the Big Ten title game, and potentially could be the National Championship favorite in the betting market going forward. While Oregon enters into this game as the popular underdog, I’m looking toward the home side on a White Out night in Happy Valley.
It’s been nearly a picture-perfect start to the campaign for Dante Moore (75% completion, 10 touchdowns) and the Oregon offense to this point. In fact, there have been nearly a dozen Ducks players that have registered touchdowns over the first 4 weeks, as Oregon handed out some beatdowns against the likes of Montana State, Oklahoma State and Oregon State. Dakorien Moore looks like one of the best receivers in the country in his true freshman season, while Malik Benson has been a breath of fresh air at the #2 wideout spot on the outside. Oregon’s running back room is deep and talented, and the Ducks have been running the ball very effectively through the first month of the campaign.
All of that said, the Ducks’ success could certainly come to a screeching halt in this one against a Penn State defensive front that ranks 2nd nationally in EPA per rush, to go along with top 5 marks in quality drive rate and Early Downs EPA, per CFB-Graphs. I certainly have faith in Moore’s upside from a long term perspective, but I also have to respect the environment in this game, especially since this will be the most difficult atmosphere that Moore has faced in his young career by far. Jim Knowles has this Nittany Lions defense humming through the first 3 games, and considering that the former Ohio State defensive coordinator has plenty of experience against the Will Stein offense, things could certainly get a bit dicey for the Oregon offensive line against these pass rushers.
As for the hosts, it hasn’t exactly been a season to write home about for the Penn State offense thus far. However, one could certainly argue that Andy Kotelnicki and this offense have been saving a lot for this game, especially with the Nittany Lions essentially playing a handful of preseason football games to get their legs under them. Much like Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State a season ago, this is an instance where I think Penn State going through the motions in the nonconference portion of its schedule has given us a bit of value on the Nittany Lions now that league play has arrived. Now, we’ll finally see what this new-look passing offense has in store for us, as the wide receiver trio of Kyron Hudson, Trevor Pena, and Devonte Ross should be fully unleashed against a supremely talented, but very young and inexperienced Oregon secondary.
We know that Drew Allar provides this offense with a pretty high floor, even if his ceiling is lower than what many pundits were expecting at the start of his collegiate career. Allar has been very good historically at home when it comes to managing the game and not turning the ball over, and he’ll also have the aide of the best running back tandem in the nation in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen to lead the way on the ground. Much like we saw in last season’s matchup, the Penn State ground game should feast on a middling Oregon run defense, particularly up the middle. If the Nittany Lions are able to control the game flow and the clock via their ground attack, I have a hard time seeing a path for Oregon to win under the lights at Beaver Stadium.
Lock in our expert’s Oregon vs Penn State predictions for Saturday
CFB best bet: Washington Huskies +9.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes (-110)
Odds taken from game preview at time of publishing. Playable to Washington +8
It’s not often that the top team in the AP Poll hits the road against an unranked opponent and is laying less than double digits, but that’s exactly what we have on Saturday when the Ohio State Buckeyes are in Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies. This is the conference road opener for an Ohio State team that has been on cruise control since its season-opening win over Texas in Week 1. However, it’s reasonable to put that victory under a lot of scrutiny considering what we’ve seen from Texas’ offense since that point, especially since Ohio State was pretty fortunate to win that game by all accounts. In fact, the Buckeyes had a postgame win expectancy of 18% in that contest, as the Longhorns’ turnovers and red zone woes proved to be the difference in Columbus.
Texas was able to move the ball consistently in that game and that’s not exactly a high-powered offense, as we’ve seen in the weeks since. Now, Ohio State makes a cross-country trip for a matchup against a Washington offense that is 9th in success rate, 1st in third and fourth-down success rate, 1st in quality drive rate and 1st in points per drive. This has been an elite unit, and I’m of the belief that Demond Williams Jr, Jonah Coleman, Denzel Boston and company should be able to generate success against an Ohio State defense that is 74th in EPA per pass and 48th in EPA per rush.
On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes should certainly hold some edges against this Washington defense, which is coming off a middling showing in the Apple Cup against Washington State. However, there are some concerns to be had with Ohio State’s offense, particularly on the line, where the Buckeyes have struggled a bit this season in terms of allowing pressure to get to Julian Sayin. For all of their talent, the Buckeyes are still 70th in rushing success rate, 95th in points per quality possession and 98th in third and fourth-down success rate. Given that this is a very difficult environment for a young quarterback making his first true road start, I have to side with the home underdog and take the points in this one.
Don’t miss our full Ohio State vs Washington predictions
CFB best bet: Arkansas Razorbacks +5.5 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-110)
Odds taken from game preview at time of publishing. Playable to Arkansas +4.5
This is a fascinating game between a couple of desperate teams in Fayetteville. Arkansas is off a pair of demoralizing losses against the likes of Ole Miss and Memphis, with both defeats coming on the road by a combined 7 points. In fact, one could certainly argue that Arkansas should’ve won at least one, if not both of those games, especially since they led in the 4th quarter against Memphis and were just a few yards away from a potential game-winning touchdown against Ole Miss.
With the last few weeks in mind, we’re getting a bit of value on Arkansas at home in a game where quarterback Taylen Green and this electric offense (4th in success rate, 1st in Early Downs EPA and 5th in third and fourth-down success rate) should be able to score early and often against a Notre Dame defense that has struggled mightily this season with Chris Ash at the controls. In fact, the Irish are just 101st in passing success rate allowed and 87th in points per drive allowed per CFB-Graphs, so there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Arkansas to put up points.
On the other side of the ball, the Arkansas defense has just as many problems as its offense, and the Razorbacks will be going up against a Notre Dame offense that has been firing on all cylinders of late, particularly with Jeremiyah Love leading the way out of the backfield. However, this is still a unit that should be able to hold up a bit more than its counterparts in the passing game, especially considering that Arkansas has already had to play an elite passing attack in Ole Miss. Neither defense is likely to cover itself in glory in this matchup, but I have a bit more faith in the Razorbacks to give an all-out effort following a pair of demoralizing losses. Ultimately, this game should produce plenty of fireworks, but Arkansas should stay within a possession, and could even spring the upset at home.
Read our full Notre Dame vs Arkansas predictions
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