Week 6 College Football Parlay: CFB Parlay Picks for Saturday, October 4

It may not be quite as jam-packed with headline matchups as Week 5, but Week 6 offers a tasty variety of college football games that carry conference championship and College Football Playoff implications. Saturday’s massive slate includes a fiery in-state rivalry contest between Miami and Florida State, in what will be Miami’s first true road game, as well as a crucial revenge game for Alabama when Vanderbilt visits Tuscaloosa. Moreover, Boise State visits South Bend as a 3-score underdog in what is certain to be a CFP elimination game against Notre Dame if these teams aren’t already eliminated.

I’ve had decent success with same game parlays over the last few weeks, including 2 winners last week, but these Saturday parlays have evaded me since Week 1’s winner. Enough is enough; it’s time to snap the dry spell with my Week 6 CFB parlay at +581 odds. Let’s analyze each leg before you head over to our NCAAF predictions and CFB best bets for the rest of our Week 6 action. 

Cincinnati team total over 27.5 (-115)

Louisville -6.5 (-110)

Ohio State -23.5 (-110)

CFB Week 6 Saturday parlay odds: +581

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportbook at time of publishing.

Cincinnati Bearcats team total over 27.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones (-115)

Iowa State’s defense has been solid thus far, keeping every opponent at or below 21 points. However, the Cyclones are severely hampered with injuries as they travel to Cincinnati to play the Bearcats. Not only is Iowa State without its top 2 corners, but the Cyclones could be without multiple depth pieces in the secondary, while top DL Domonique Orange has been banged up, too. Orange is expected to play in this game, but I’m uncertain of how effective he will be. 

Cincinnati is built to take advantage of a hobbled Iowa State defense. After scoring just 17 points in their opening contest, the Bearcats have rattled off 3 straight wins with at least 34 points scored. They come into this contest fresh off a 37-34 victory at Kansas, a win in which they accumulated 603 yards, and they sit in the top 15 in most key offensive advanced metrics – including yards per play, PPA per play and points per quality drive. Furthermore, Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby has propelled this offense to a top 10 mark in PPA per pass and passing downs PPA. Look for him to take advantage of a decimated Iowa State secondary and lead the Bearcats to at least 4 touchdowns.

Find out our expert’s Miami vs Florida State Same Game Parlay picks at +400 odds

Louisville Cardinals -6.5 vs Virginia Cavaliers (-110)

If you read my opening line report, then you locked this in earlier this week. We beat some temporary line movement, as this ticked up as high as -7.5 at some books, but has since come back down to the opening number. That’s just fine with me. While I understand the Virginia love, I still expect the Cavaliers to suffer from a traditional letdown spot when they travel to Louisville after their massive home win over Florida State.

Virginia’s Week 5 win was impressive given what the Seminoles did to Alabama in Week 1, but the Cavaliers were not flawless by any means against Florida State. They surrendered more than 500 yards, 256 of which were on the ground, and turned the ball over 3 times last week, which would be much more difficult to overcome on the road if they were to surface again – especially against a Louisville team with an opportunistic defense and a strong rushing offense. Give me Louisville to win by at least a touchdown against a fat-and-happy Virginia squad.

Read our full Virginia vs Louisville prediction

Ohio State Buckeyes -23.5 vs Minnesota Golden Gophers (-110)

This is a massive number to lay, but I struggle to find a path to success for Minnesota’s offense. On paper, the Golden Gophers (3-1) are off to a great start this season, but when digging a little deeper, it’s actually a bit more concerning than anything. Despite a strength of record outside the top 50 and a strength of schedule outside the top 110 (ESPN), Minnesota’s offense ranks 72nd in yards per play, 81st in turnover margin and 97th in points per quality drive. Defensively, Minnesota sits outside the top 50 in advanced passing metrics and third-down conversion rate, in addition to 108th in points per quality drive allowed. 

Ohio State represents a massive step up in class compared to Minnesota’s previous 4 opponents. The Buckeyes have playmakers on the offensive side of the ball unlike anyone Minnesota has seen to this point, and they are elite defensively – sitting top 10 nationally in most advanced metrics while holding every opponent under 10 points thus far. Minnesota’s underlying metrics suggest the Gophers could be in for a long day under the lights of Ohio Stadium, so I’m laying the points with the Buckeyes here.

Read our full Minnesota vs Ohio State prediction